The fallacy of pseudo-significant numbers

(Running from stupidity) #1

I was over in Don’s accountability thread - where he’s doing great things - and we were talking about stuff and I ended up putting this in his thread.

I’m putting it here because this is a thing humans do - we set goals, which is great, but we so often do it on the basis of what are arbitrary numbers and so we lose sight of our actual achievements.

Weight units are arbitrary things, so round/pseudo-significant numbers based around them are even more so. I’m in Australia, so we - like all bar three countries in the world - work in kilograms for weight. So, if I lose 10kg, I get excited. But am I also excited by losing 22.0462 pounds? Not so much, despite it being the exact same thing.

OK, so here’s my sports journo explanation of why round/psuedo-significant numbers are not ACTUALLY important.

Cricket is one of our national sports. Some matches go on for five days (Test matches, between countries). One major milestone for batsmen is to score 100 runs without being dismissed in the one innings - a “century” or a “ton.”

In Australia, the “bad luck” number as you approach 100 is 87 - the “devil’s number” - because it’s 13 short of a ton.

In terms of batting averages, a VERY GOOD batsman will average over 50, and an EXCEPTIONAL one will average over 60. (The best ever was at 99.94, but he was legitimately a freak. Don Bradman, who, of course, was an Aussie.)

So, if you get close to a century and don’t get it, people are disparaging. “Couldn’t handle the pressure.” “Mentally weak.” Which triggers me.

“Would you like a hundred every second time at bat, or 87 every time?”

Given that 87 would make you statistically the second-best batsman in history, and 50 drops you back to being just very good, it’s an easy enough answer.

So, beware the fallacy of pseudo-significant numbers :slight_smile:

(I Am The Egg Man ku-ku-kachoo) #2

Everyone who (like me) falls prey to “chasing numbers” should read this. It’s a behavior I’ve followed, as it gives me milestones to chase, but it also finds me chasing numbers of relatively little significance.

Thanks again, Mic. I needed this.

#3

Great post, @juice!

I like the way @slabb has made his progress into game achievements.

(Banting & Yudkin & Atkins & Eadeses & Cordain & Taubes & Volek & Naiman & Bikman ) #4

That said a 20 lbs reconposition or a 10kg is generally significant enough that other people take notice. Maybe an 18 lbs gets it done for some.

(Hyperbole- best thing in the universe!) #5

Yeah, but people don’t comment when you’re exactly 20 lb or 10 kg down, which is the point. 18.7 lb loss isn’t less valuable. I know this, but I still strive to get to the next 5 lb mark. And I get so happy. Then a friend asks how much I’ve lost and I have to convert it into a much less satisfying kg or jin (half kg.) But that other measurement is the same dang thing. So as of this morning I’ve lost 39 lb 17.6 kg 35.2 jin. Should I be more proud of the jin? Round numbers are appealing, but they don’t mean much.

(Bob M) #6

Thank goodness we’re not measuring in stones. :grin: I’ve only lost 3.6 stones.

(Banting & Yudkin & Atkins & Eadeses & Cordain & Taubes & Volek & Naiman & Bikman ) #7

I kind of like Stones… every 14 lbs… each Stone is a mileStone (HAH!).

4.5 stones this year.

(Doug) #8

Mic, what is the definition of “bar three countries”? I googled the term, and while there are a very few usages that come up, I could not find what it actually means.

You’re right that “milestones” have no objective significance on their own. It’s all in the mind, as with so many things. Many things are advertised at 9.99, for example, rather than 10, because of our human peculiarties, I guess.

#9

I think you should throw it in there, just so we can truly be an international forum! :grin:
Everyone should just post with their local measurements, and let everyone else convert.

(Hyperbole- best thing in the universe!) #10

Haha! True, but as I said in Don’s thread, I use pounds because it is the measurement I understand before I’ve had my coffee☕️

#11

That applies to SO MANY things for me! :laughing:

(Running from stupidity) #12

Spot on, yeah.

The UK can make anything weird :slight_smile:

:metal::metal::metal::metal::metal:

Ah yeah, my bad. “All but three countries” would have been clearer.

Of all the countries in the world, only three still use the archaic Imperial system of weights and measures:

Liberia.
Myanmar (a.k.a. “the country formerly known as Burma”)
United States of America.

https://www.quora.com/What-countries-still-use-the-imperial-system-of-measurement

This is what I do, except it really means “Americans” :slight_smile:

#13

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

I’m okay with that. I’ve got Google.

(John) #14

I have several intermediate target weights that are only significant to me: 285 pounds and 245 pounds.

285 used to be the last redoubt - when I hit that, I would say “enough, time to get back in shape.” Somehow I let myself blow right through that up to the vicinity of 330. So my first goal is to regain that last line of defense that I abandoned and re-establish the wall there. I do not plan to stay there, but it’s a goal.

245 is a point I got to about 9 years ago, when I started at that 285 marker and, through diligent exercise and calorie reduction, lost 40 pounds in 8 weeks. I know I can’t re-create that loss in that same time frame because of age and other factors, but that was a win that I wish I had held on to.

So they don’t mean anything regarding any sort of health measurements. They are just markers of places I used to be and want to get back to (and hold onto when I get there).

(Terence Dean) #15

It translates as “except” or “other than”, comes from the term “bar none” meaning - with no exceptions.

(Terence Dean) #16

Agreed, it’s a great to idea to set yourself goals - just be prepared to move the goal posts! :wink:

There’s a few other sayings I like such as:

“Its impossible to see the writing on the wall when you have your back against it”. - no idea who wrote that but its funny.

and

“We don’t have a plan, …so nothing can possibly go wrong” - Spike Milligan - an Irish genius. :rofl:

(Doug) #17

:blush: Indeed, Terence - I guess I’d have needed a comma in there, and perhaps a change in syntax, to see it the first time, i.e. “like all countries in the world, bar three…” I got the wrong initial impression, and was searching for what a ‘bar three’ country was… :smile:

(Terence Dean) #18

Meh, in Australia punctuation and spelling are optional, we treat them like parsley - it makes your steak look good but you don’t need to eat it. :wink:

(Bob M) #19

For me, I want to be over weight and not obese. It’s meaningless, but there you go.

(Running from stupidity) #20

Not meaningless. Goals are good.