Two Urgent Care Physicians Blow Up The Shutdown

(Doug) #103

:smile: :+1: We’re trying to maintain…

How many Covid-19 deaths would there have to be before you’d think it was a big problem?

The Bay Area counties did really act fast and slowed things down a lot. Santa Cruz County - very little testing being done and only ~3% positives. I would think those results are also higher than for the general population, i.e. more people that are obviously sick or having symptoms would get tested than others.

David, what do you think is going to happen? Things are absolutely crawling along there. I think almost everything is still to come. What appears to be a very low infection rate means that it will take a very long time for the infection to spread; I’d think far longer than stay-at-home orders will be maintained. ‘Draw conclusions’ - who knows, at this point? :smile: I’d say much of it comes down to what portion of the population is really vulnerable and how long they can be protected.

(Full Metal KETO AF) #104

@OldDoug There’s quite a few people here who believe it was going around undetected earlier than it was thought. Both my friend Kim (nurse) and I had a severe lung/throat virus in Jan-Feb. I was sick 25 days and I seriously never get sick Doug. I take care of sick people around me without getting sick. But this knocked me on my ass. I’d like to be tested to know for sure.

I just talked to another person last night who’s friend had the same experience. If it was here earlier there might have been deaths not counted as COVID related. But really the measures here haven’t been particularly tight. Just a week ago masks started being required in stores and limits on numbers of people allowed at once in a store too. Really ineffective measures early on I think and still that way mostly. Cart handles not being wiped down and other stuff I’m just now starting to see being done.

And it’s loosening up now on the things allowed. They’ve also come up with a couple things you can be charged with, creating a public health hazard and being a pubic nuisance or disturbance if you don’t comply with Shelter in Place orders. It will be interesting to see if it is going to get worse or just continue to plod along here. We don’t have the density of population like New York. We have our own vehicles mostly and don’t ride face to face in subways or walk through very dense crowds like you have on NYC sidewalks. A little bit like that in San Francisco but nothing like NYC. So I doubt it will ever get that bad here. :cowboy_hat_face:

(Todd) #105

Well… One is too many but I look at it this way. My mother in law is 81 years old. She has diabetes, and Fibrosis of the lungs. She has had several trips to the hospital last year for breathing problems and a month in a nursing home for rehab. Her Doctor said that if she gets a cold, she could get pneumonia and die. If she gets the flu, she will most likely die. She has self isolated for the past 3 years during fall and winter. Why should I self isolate when the people with the underling problems are the ones who are hurt by the disease. I know, I know there are always exceptions to the rule.

But I still try to wrap my head around a disease that doesn’t seem to be a problem for many and is apparently rampant already. https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/asymptomatic-workers-missouri-pork-plant-coronavirus-positive And https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/495946-pork-processing-plant-in-missouri-confirms-373

Both articles are the same. I couldn’t find that any of the 400 who tested positive, 373 were were asymptomatic. They had no signs of the disease. They tested 1500 at the time. If my math is correct, 24.8% of the 1500 had no signs of the disease but were positive for Covid 19. I couldn’t find any thing about the asymptomatic people on CNN’s website except in the headline. I had to go to the other two sites to get details. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/us/triumph-foods-outbreak-missouri/index.html

Look at CA, NY and NJ studies for people with antibodies for Covid 19. https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/04/21/los-angeles-study-backs-stanford-researchers-conclusion-about-high-prevalence-of-covid-19 Seems anywhere from 2-4 % in CA and up to 21% in NY have been exposed. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html

If this is true, it would drive the death rate down and not be as scary.

(Scott) #106

It is truly amazing how many times I have heard people say this happened at about that same time.

(Ron) #107

Just asking - And how would you feel if you were unknowingly infected and went to visit her thus infecting her and causing her to die?
Or do you or your wife just not go visit her?

Not arguing, just looking at the situation from another angle.

(Jane) #108

That is why I’ve maintained my social distance from my elderly and not all in the best of health neighbors. I would feel terrible if I had the virus with no symptoms and made them ill or caused them to die.

Although I’m not sure I would know it if no symptoms and one is going to rehab at the local hospital 3 times a week so he could pick it up there.

(Todd) #109

She would probably starve to death. I don’t go visit. My wife does her shopping and sets up her meds. She has one son in the nursing home and my wife is it. Other 2 children are dead along with her husband. Rough life.

But since most of the deaths seem to revolve around nursing homes, we are not putting her there.

Everything has risks. Drive a car, ride a bike or walk down the street. There is a level of risk in everything we do, including going to Walmart.

But what about the 373 asymptomatic meat workers. They are spreading it or were spreading it and didn’t even know it. Gotta eat so what do you propose? This isn’t the only location with asymptomatic people. I refer to Chicken Little.

(Steve) #110

I think the people saying “there’s no problem here” are getting too much of their information from unreliable sources.
What we DO know:

  • people with pre-existing conditions are much more likely to require hospitalization, ICU and more likely to succumb to the disease.
  • these include immune-deficiencies, respiratory disease and cardiovascular disease (so, we can include heart problems, asthma, T1&T2 diabetes, people with scarred / compromised lungs).
  • people over 50 are hit much harder by the disease
  • it’s harder on men than women
  • can also cause excessive clotting / strokes.

So, while children, for the most part tend to just shrug it off and teens - 20’s much the same, as we get older and have other health conditions our probability of severity dramatically increases.

Me, I smoked for 30+ years, worked in a yarn factory in the late 80’s for a couple years (read: no PPE, so lungs full of synthetic fibres), had pneumonia 4x over the years (first time at 20), and I’ll be 52 in July. Based on the stats I’ve seen, if I get it, I have about an 85% chance of dying. Otherwise, very healthy and active (lost over 100lbs on Keto).

Edit: Where they’re enjoying warmer temps - the risk may be lower. It appears Covid may follow similar patterns to our flu season - the warmer temps may kill it off. As we get more data, this should prove this out…and we’ll find out what outdoor temperature ranges make things considerably safer.

Edit2: (sorry, meant to add this as well). Many of us came here originally in search of information so we could battle health issues that we had (overweight, fatty liver, T2 diabetes, etc). Many people that are overweight are either T2 or pre-diabetic - a very high percentage of the population (lots of sources out there - someone can post a link to somewhere reputable) :slight_smile: So, unfortunately, where this disease to run it’s course, with no isolation, I think you could be seeing millions of deaths in the US.

(Jane) #112

I typed the data from my state into a spreadsheet since I saw a similar graph but it did not have data past 4/13

AR%20COVID%20Graph
AR COVID Graph.JPG1423×1038 79.2 KB

(Full Metal KETO AF) #113

@Daves_Not_Here Is that all you’re going to list? :joy::joy::joy::joy::cowboy_hat_face:

#114

@David_Stilley Thanks, but got blocked. Apparently, noticing that the emperor has no clothes is beyond the pale.

#115

Fret not…they’re back. Not my scene but have at it :grinning:

(Peter) #116

Proceeds to do what he can to disrupt that by making a ridiculously partisan list of complaints. Hypocrisy at its finest.

“Letting you all die is a sacrifice I’m prepared to make.”

“Your justifiable fears do not trump my rights. Ain’t nothin’ like enough dead yet!”

Really got a theme going, Texx (appropriate username, too, well done there as well).

That sums it up perfectly, indeed.

As long as they agree with them, the veracity is irrelevant. Inject bleach, right?

(Elmo) #117

It would get too political - you could list hundreds of the things the President’s said…

(Elmo) #118

Had to laugh about 6 minutes in, where he says, “No, we don’t really know why they took it (the first video) down…” :wink:

(Porcinus) #119

It would be interesting to see the results of that group of people being tested.

(Janus) #121

They’re trying to put that first video behind them, as well they should. They got ripped to shreds in the YouTube comments on the first one. A lot better this time around, although the interviewer doesn’t ask much of them at all. They might as well be talking to each other.

(Doug) #122

Testing is the way to go, to try and figure it out. David, a sister-in-law of mine started feeling bad on December 18 or so, went to the hospital emergency room on the 23rd, and was in intensive care with a ventilator the next day and for two weeks afterwards. Bad case of pneumonia with a collapsed lung. 57 year old, tennis player, zero existing health problems. She’s fine now, but we do wonder - they took samples but nothing grew in the lab cultures, so we don’t know: bacteria, virus, fungus…

To this point I dismissed the idea of it being the Coronavirus, i.e. how could it hide in the population for very long at all without somebody having severe symptoms/hospitalization/dying? Officially, as of now the first coronavirus case in Georgia was on March 2. So, mid-December…?

What Texx mentioned about the hundreds of meat packing plant employees being positive but having no symptoms does give me pause - given the experience of NYC, Italy, Spain, France, etc., how can this be? Even with the known relatively high number of deaths and cases in New York State, people there thus far have tested 68% negative. The numbers from the meat plants show a much different picture - at first glance “a lot” of cases but in states with very few deaths, overall.

(Doug) #123

I can certainly understand about your mother-in-law. But, on the deaths, one really isn’t “too many” - we all will draw the line somewhere, but in a year ~40,000 die in traffic accidents in the U.S. and we pretty much go along accepting it, for example.

Why should you self-isolate? There’s a limit, to be sure. Restrictions are already being lifted, whether one ends up thinking it good or bad. As a practical matter, we’re going to find out…

Texx, good mention about the meatpacking plant. There is something about meat plants… South Dakota - 700 or 800 cases in one plant, Indiana - 890 of 2200 people, Iowa - 58% of a plant’s employees positive. I don’t see what amounts of those cases involved symptoms, hospitalization, etc. The plant in Missouri - by April 30, at least 1500 people had been tested. If symptoms are going to appear they should have been felt by now or in the very near future. I’m wondering about the age and the health of those tested…

#124

I live in NC, currently ~500 people in the hospital for Covid19 out of a population of ~10,000,000

I’m pretty sure if NY had our hospitalization count, they never would have shut down.

Enjoy the “new normal”