Coronovirus Prediction


(Jeff S) #122

Many people look mainly at their own risk “how likely am I to get the virus?”

And they ignore the societal risk and the massive impact it could have on every aspect of life. Here are a couple links that help people start to get the reality of the situation:

https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/wellness-prevention/flattening-curve-for-covid-19-what-does-it-mean-and-how-can-you-help?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/13/coronavirus-numbers-we-really-should-be-worried-about/


(Joey) #123

Love it!

Yes, indeed. And when it comes to stupidity, history shows how humans can team up in a combined effort. :woozy_face:


(Bacon is a many-splendoured thing) #124

It doesn’t appear that men are more likely to contract diabetes than women; the likelier explanation is that women are better than men at following health advice.

Moreover, the actual problem with Type II diabetes (the most common form) is the systemic inflammation caused by the elevated serum insulin levels resulting from insulin resistance (caused, as we might expect, by a high-carbohydrate diet). I believe it is probably this inflammation that makes people more vulnerable to coronavirus. [Edit: The notion that glucose might feed the virus, which several posts mention, also makes a great deal of sense.]

Because Type I diabetes was the first to be noticed and described over two thousand years ago, the customary thinking is that diabetes is a problem with the regulation of serum glucose (since elevated serum glucose is the most noticeable symptom). However, all types of diabetes are better described as problems with insulin regulation.

Type I is an autoimmune disease, in which the immune system selectively attacks and destroys the beta cells of the Islets of Langerhans in the pancreas. These are the cells that synthesise and secrete insulin, and without a certain minimum level of insulin in the bloodstream, we essentially starve to death. This was the usual fate of Type I diabetics until the discovery of insulin in 1921.

Type II and Type III (Alzheimer’s disease) are problems of excessive insulin resulting from insulin resistance, which is the opposite problem from that found in Type I. Typically, insulin resistance is caused by excessive carbohydrate intake.

Type III diabetes is a problem with glucose metabolism in the brain, whereas Type II is a problem with elevated serum insulin, which leads to hypertension, atherosclerosis, glycated haemoglobin (and the associated increase risk of stroke and myocardial infarction), gout, obesity, certain cancers, and the other conditions considered to be part of metabolic syndrome. In Type II diabetes, the problem is not so much that the glucose metabolism doesn’t work, but rather that insulin resistance has increased to the point where high levels of insulin in the bloodstream are no longer as effective at stimulating glucose metabolism as they would be in a healthy person. In other words, cells can still metabolise glucose just fine, but they have shut down most of the insulin receptors that instruct them to do so.

The late Dr. Joseph Kraft, who studied Type II diabetes extensively, believed that it was an error to withhold a diagnosis of Type II until the insulin resistance got to the point where serum glucose was out of control. He believed that it was possible to diagnose Type II as much as twenty years earlier, by conducting an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and analysing the results. The problem is that OGTT’s are labour-intensive and therefore expensive, so doctors don’t like to prescribe them and insurance companies don’t like to pay for them.


(Bacon is a many-splendoured thing) #125

It doesn’t have to have been created intentionally. Viruses have been mutating and jumping from animals to human beings throughout the past several million years. The problem is that nowadays, with our rapid worldwide travel options, it is possible for such mutated viruses to spread rapidly across the world, whereas in the past, they would either quickly kill off the local population and die out, or else they would spread slowly enough for people to stand a chance of getting out of the way.

I’m not discounting your “evil science lab” hypothesis entirely, just suggesting that Occam’s razor makes it unnecessary. :slight_smile:


(Bacon is a many-splendoured thing) #126

In a multiple-provider system, what you call “triage” is called “we don’t cover that.” Just saying.


(Karen) #127

Here are some additional March 14 contradictions. Same fella, just clarifying


(Joey) #128

While I won’t dismiss the “evil science lab” folks as conspiracists, I would add that - if the Chinese concocted this strain of virus - then other major powers have no doubt made similar kinds of efforts. I wouldn’t be surprised if the USA, Russia, UK, et al, have their own franken-virus efforts underway in dark basements somewhere too.

Not saying that’s what’s behind COVID-19 (in fact, I personally do not believe it is!) … but if there’s any “evil” moral judgment to be applied, it likely is widely shared, so one ought not take any pique at the Chinese in particular.

(In fact, if the Chinese really are creating such bugs, then other world powers would be remiss to refrain from better understanding such weapons through their own well-contained efforts. Just like with nuclear weapons, one can wish the world to be different… but that’s the collective stupidity of humanity at work.)


(Karen) #129

Isn’t it strange how different viruses can be. The 1918 (H1N1) Spanish flu had the highest mortality in people between the ages of 20-40. Not that others were not also affected but that was the largest group. The result was that this childbearing age group affected the growth of the population for long time. This virus is hitting the Social Security crowd pretty heavily. I wonder what that will look like going forward after the virus tapers off.


(Susan) #130

I went grocery shopping on Thursday night, at Walmart, Food Basics and Costco. I also went into the Dollarama -and there was no toilet paper in any of the stores, or Kleenex, or paper towel, and no baby wipes, wipes, rubbing alcohol, etc left. Costco had no eggs left (I sill have 4 dozen here but I was going to get more).

There were no shopping carts at Costco, I stopped a guy that does the carts and he said there are all in store being used, so I followed an elderly couple to their car (I didn’t look as sketchy because I had my adorable grand daughter with me (who will be 4 in July and charms everyone) but it was still a bit creepy that I followed them to get their cart, haha.

They were very very sweet; though, and the three of us emptied their cart (I asked if I could help and they were happy for the help) so that worked out well).


(Kristen Ann) #131

Haha, love this. :smile:


(Joey) #132

Ok, brace yourself for my crass, but honest, reply…

By targeting older folks, COVID-19 will provide a longer-term economic boost world-wide.

The elderly consume a disproportionate share of medical care, while tying up a disproportionate share of a nation’s wealth. When we’re gone (I mean older folks in general)- and we stop burdening the healthcare system while also releasing our saved net worth to our heirs (and/or no longer drain social security programs) - then the remaining population will be better off economically speaking.

To be blunt: When the herd is thinned, the surviving population always does better on a per capita basis. I wouldn’t say this about a disease that afflicts the young (e.g., AIDS, malaria, etc.) But COVIS-19 clearly affects the elderly most severely.

Again, this is merely my crass economic analysis. I don’t wish harm on anyone! :vulcan_salute:


(Polly) #133

I agree with your analysis. It does not mean that you think it is OK for the elderly or infirm to die, it just means that you are capable of examining the likely outcomes of this pandemic.


(Utility Muffin Research Kitchen) #135

We’re juggling several balls here. What you wrote is true. But it may not be the whole truth. What follows is a conjecture.

People with insulin resistance have very likely problems to store glucose as glycogen (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18220643). Thus, they do have a different glucose metabolism – glucose has to come mostly from the blood, and if it isn’t there they get hypo. With the results from the study linked above that carb consumption may be beneficial if you have contracted a virus, this could contribute to a higher death rate because diabetics essentially can’t use carbs unless they eat almost constantly.

The keto effects are mostly from prevention: A stronger immune system and a better microbiome will make it likely that the immune system can fend it off. This will undoubtedly make keto people much more resistant to all infections. However, if the virus does multiply, then ketones may or may not be beneficial.

Bottom line: People on keto will be less likely to see an outbreak of the virus, but if they do, I’m not sure that they have better or worse chances than non-keto people.


(Krissanne Zaldua) #136

In response to AtomicSpaceBunny’s reply:

Wow, this sickness behaviour study is so useful and interesting - have you found any more research about this? I have found very little but I would be interested in discussing it more!

The copper idea is interesting and maybe useful during an outbreak, but surely the copper can’t select for ‘dangerous’ vs helpful microbes and therefore may not be a regular strategy?

Fruno - your study link does make more sense in human models - I admit most of Peter at hyperlipid’s discussion is over my head but evidently good science - -

Thank you for posting …
Krissie


(Joey) #137

…I think I follow you… but only to a point.

By definition, wouldn’t a stronger immune system necessarily make for a better outcome (i.e., less extensive degree of invasion by a virus and/or a faster recovery)?

Viral and bacterial populations are pervasive. It’s rarely an all-or-nothing situation in confronting germs since we’re “bathing” in them on a continuous basis.

So it’s the state of our immune systems - robust or otherwise - that typically determine our state of health since we don’t live in a sterile field. In fact, without a flourishing gut microbiome, we’d likely be dead.

If “keto people” do indeed have a more robust immune system than “non-keto people” it seems to follow that keto people’s chances against COVID-19 would be better, no?


(Ethan) #138

Italy experienced 368 COVID-19 deaths in the last 24 hours. With that pace continues (no further daily increases), that would be 132,000 deaths a year. How does that smell to you now?


(Dirty Lazy Keto'er, Sucralose freak ;)) #139

I’d rather not get the Corona Virus, but for that matter, I’d rather not get sick from anything, even a cold. But I do believe that if I were to get the Corona Virus, Id kick its a$$. But to be quite honest, I’m FAR MORE concerned about the impacts of the Corona Virus on the economy. Im actually doing okay right now… but everything is hanging by a thread ! One small change, and I wont be able to pay my bills. Scary !


(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #140

An Effective Treatment for Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Presented by: Thomas R. Broker, PhD (Stanford PhD), James M. Todaro, MD (Columbia MD) and Gregory J. Rigano, Esq.
In consultation with Stanford University School of Medicine, UAB School of Medicine and National Academy of Sciences researchers.

March 13, 2020

Full

Gin and tonic?


Question about Coronovirus?
(Scott) #141

Italy is a basket case, their medical system freaks each year with the flu anyway as I have been told and their open border policy with the rest of Europe didn’t help either.


#142

The EU is a collection of small countries that act together like our states. The EU is a lot smaller than the US. By your logic, we should close all state borders in the US. Good luck with that!