Coronovirus Prediction

(Jane) #82

Im a wingnut conspiracy theorist so I always expect we are being manipulated and lied to.

The panic responses are nowhere near in line with the number of outbreaks and fatalities and the media is fanning the flames with its nonstop coverage

(Ethan) #83

Dr Berg is a a moron sometimes. He doesn’t understand exponential infection growth. 25 deaths very quickly becomes 25,000 with a high infection rate. Keto may or may not make you healthier. If you are type-2 diabetic, keto will probabaly improve your chances significantly, since you won’t have uncontrolled glucose.

(Ethan) #84

You are nuts. They are deciding in Italy to LET ELDERLY and those with UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITIONS DIE so they can instead use the space to treat younger and healthier patients with intubation and ventilation.

(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #85

It’s called triage. When capacity is overwhelmed, you treat those most likely to survive first.

(Ethan) #86

Correct. My comment was to Janie, who doesn’t seem to think this is serious.

#87

Yes, indeed @Janie, we are largely miseducated or underinformed on social & political contexts, and I sincerely thank you for speaking to that as an engineer and a beekeeper!

Ever since the Union of Concerned Scientists produced their initial alarming statement about rapid global warming in the 1970s, we’ve needed overviews and ethical, preventative action & policy on multiple emergencies. Those emergencies are at a peak now - and crowd control in the face of catastrophic climate change is a thing.

Yes, let’s talk about serious… How about the fact that the POLAR CAPS ARE MELTING RAPIDLY (Greenland’s 8 billion gallons a day melt has increased a few more billion)? Or, the fact that the wondrous and beloved polar bears, birds, bees, tigers, elephants, along with many hundreds of other glorious species are rapidly declining and DISAPPEARING forever?

Yet the global news headlines and local newspapers have vastly reduced any coverage or commentary on the climate catastrophe the last few months as the focus on the new virus has increased.

Very ironically, in a world where 7 million people a year die from air pollution but that’s never been declared an emergency, nor have the biggest petrochemical users/polluters (industry and the US military) been required to severely scale back. Not to mention the public health disaster of 24/7 rape and sexual exploitation being streamed to every handheld internet device and computer (which the beloved British actor Emma Thompson has well described it as a toxic waste spill).

And global collapse fosters ever-increasing domestic terrorism on the local level, especially against vulnerable groups like women, children, people of color, the very elderly, and the disabled.

The virus pandemic is certainly, and effectively, taking attention away from the bigger picture.

From what I understand about social experiments and social controls - dictating where the attention goes allows for ever-increasing crowd control. The brilliant documentary/art film Crisis Of Civilization a few years back featuried Nafeez Ahmed PhD (former environment writer for The Guardian and an investigative journalist on geopolitical policy) who narrarated how our global crises of ecological disaster, financial meltdown, dwindling oil reserves, terrorism, and food shortages are converging symptoms of a single, failed global system that will require a terrorized citzenry and martial law in order to prevent mass uprisings, riots, stormings of palaces, etc.

Indigenous elders/grandmothers from a variety of nations have been sounding the alarm for decades, and the UN took notice and launched a yearly World Conference on Indigenous Peoples/The Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues. But the industrial world’s elite have not only ignored the elders but in many cases found new reasons to ramp up invasion of sacred lands and cultural genocide.

In 2001, British DJ and composer Nitin Sawheny created a piece on urban injustice and general collapse of civilization featuring the Ohio-based, Puertoriquena punk-rapper Pinky Tuscadero (her alias name - taken from a Happy Days character). She’d been driven into hiding/retirement by brutal supremacist haters in the music scene in the early 90s. Her prescient lyrics on the piece are an ode to the social & political realities of collapse as seen through the eyes of the vulnerable & marginalized, with a refrain of survival and fighting back on behalf of all that is good in the world. Those who appreciate the political spoken word combined with urban sound & driving electric bass on occasion (it’s definitely not for everybody) may enjoy it, it’s called Ripping Out Tears, best played in loud stereo or in good ear buds so you can hear her lyrics well.

(Jane) #88

I don’t and won’t be proven right or wrong until it burns itself out

For the “regular flu” the CDC estimates between 34 and 49 MILLION illnesses in the US this year. Between 20,000 and 52,000 deaths. No schools were shut down, no public gatherings cancelled. The deaths in the US for the Corona are less than 50 so far? Sure it will climb… but greater than 35k deaths? We shall see… Right now Italy sits at 79 and China less than 3000. And I am crazy to not worry???

I’ll be curious to see what the final statistics will be on the beer virus.

And if anyone should worry it is me since I travel a lot for my job. I am looking forward to some elbow room from the empty seats in the next few weeks while flying. Won’t last.

(Ethan) #89

Counterpoint: Most Flu infections don’t require an ICU Bed. New Rochelle, NY, has 12 beds, 11 of which are currently occupied by flu patients. 1 is a COVID-19 patient.

If 38 million people need medical attention, we will need to treat between 200,000 and 2,900,000 (2.9 million) people in the ICU. There are currently only 100,000 ICU beds in the country, which generally are half-occupied. (Source: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2020/cbnreport-02272020.html and https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-Statistics)

Forget the regular flu. This is more contageous than the flu and we have ZERO immunity. Why would we NOT get MORE infections in a year than the 49 million of the flu? We have only 50 deaths so far because of exponential growth. It takes time to build up, but it grows fast.

Again, the best flu comparison is to say that AT LEAST AS MANY PEOPLE WILL GET THIS AS WHO GET THE FLU! Why? It is MORE CONTAGIOUS than the flu and we have NO IMMUNITY TO IT. Nothing is there to stop it.

EDIT for more info:

To put it in perspective vs. the flu… If the SAME number of people get this as get the flu at 49million. Let’s say that the current rate of death is 0.65%, which is the probably the best-case scenario if there is no over-capacity issue. Then, that would be 318,500 deaths.

Now let’s say instead 150 million get it and that the fatality rate is 1%, that would be 1.5million deaths. This is no flu

#90

If the panic doesn’t start now you can’t stop it. If everyone continues to congregate in large numbers and infection rates boom all at once then the hospitals become overwhelmed and people die due to lack of resources. The most vulnerable of our population is at the most risk and that makes it even more important to keep the infection rate as low as possible or at least the spread of it over a longer period of time. This thing at the very least is 10x more deadly than seasonal flu. There is no vaccine and no immunity to it. Even the craziest political whacks wouldn’t purposely collapse the entire economy where nobody really wins. People had predicted something like this happening for many years and this one seems like the perfect virus since it spreads easily and people walk around spreading it before they even know they are sick. Profession and college sport leagues don’t throw away billions of dollars for a hoax.

(Jane) #91

We shall see what the real outcome is at the end of this.

Unless you shop at Walmart in a HAZMAT suit you will be touching everything everyone else has been touching, including the checkout screens, portable scanner, etc.

(Jane) #92

Wipe down the handles of your shopping cart if it makes you feel better. How many times have you picked up a product, read the label and returned it to the shelf?

If you are contagious you just exposed others unwittingly.

(Jane) #93

Has anyone thought to question what evil science lab cooked up this virus in the first place?

It just “appeared” on its own?? Mutated “naturally?”

My brother with military contacts begs to differ.

(Karen) #94

Interesting… What do you think the endgame is? What do you think the political advantage will be? I’m not sure I agree but it is intriguing.

(Jane) #95

Not sure yet. My rules are “follow the money” and “who benefits”. Sometimes it is obvious up front and sometimes it takes hind sight.

(Jane) #96

So what became of SARS, Avian flu, Ebola???

(Karen) #97

I believe the media is irresponsible in this matter, as in so many others. They do need to sell a product, but in doing that they step over the line of decency. A fair amount of what you read is just not true.

(Ethan) #98

I hope I am totally wrong and it fizzles!

I don’t plan to shop often really while we are in lay-low mode.

You don’t have to wipe everything constantly—just wash your hands before you touch your mouth. However, this thing spreads in the air for a limited (but significant time) anyway!

SARS, avian flu, and Ebola were all contained. They are not very transmissible. You need to be showing symptoms to transmit those. This is not true of COVID19. You can transmit it days before you feel sick, as you never feel sick, or days after you felt better. There is much more viral load in COVID19 vs SARS also. COVID19 sheds as you breathe—no cough or sneeze necessary! Ebola requires fluid contact and you die too soon usually to transmit. This is so bad because it spreads so easily for so long in an undetectable way.

(Wendy) #99

I think this is a great resource. I’ve been watching this for a week now.

(Jeff S) #100

See if this helps you understand why there is such an aggressive response:

(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #101
Question about Coronovirus?