Coronovirus Prediction

(Ellen ) #311

Some will never agree with the experts. What can I say. :thinking:

(Ken) #312

The last 50 years of Nutritional Science is a good example of that.

(Scott) #313

All of the estimates of the amount or rate of death have been way off but alway on the high side. They keep revising down because the models used had incorrect data. This will continue I predict. Later the “experts” will claim the we were so successful in mitigation and that is why their models were off. They had it wrong from the get go with wildly exaggerated forecasts of deaths. Time will sort it all out…while we wreck the economy.

(Joey) #314

This is an amusing (if not morbid) example of how boneheaded epidemiologists can be.

From today’s New York Times: “New Research Links Air Pollution to Higher Coronavirus Death Rates”

So basically, they found a correlation between where people live and where people die, and attribute it to something other than the obvious… i.e., that people tend to die in greater numbers in places where they live in greater numbers.

The article notes that no individual data was collected; as such, it’s not a study of each individual’s cumulative exposure to pollution (regardless of their geolocation) and COVID-19 death rates.

Think of all the missed opportunities here … the researchers could have drawn a correlation between voting in higher numbers and death. Or in Congressional representation and COVID-19 susceptibility. Or the prevalence of toaster ovens and COVID-19 cases. Or perhaps the extent of branch banking and outdoor ATMs… :thinking:

Your thoughts?

(Scott) #315

I do like this one.

I saw some study that claimed that the reduction in pollution in China caused by the shutdown saved (insert any number here) lives.

(Joey) #316

… and global warming? … and traffic accidents? … and stubbed toes? …

We’ve finally stumbled upon a solution to the ill effects of our global humanity: Less global humanity. :mask:

(Doug) #317

It was written almost a month ago, and China is very likely not reporting all its Covid-19 deaths, but the principle definitely operates.

It can’t just be people dying in greater numbers where they live in greater numbers - that would be ludicrous. Surely, “death rates” are per unit number of population, the “rate” being the deal.

Coincidentally, both the studies look at “PM 2.5” - tiny particles in the air, 2.5 microns or less in size. China has more than 1.4 billion people - shaving a little off the death rate will make some big numbers fast. For the Harvard study, I’d think it would be predictable in advance - people whose lungs are more stressed to begin with will probably have more problems with such a disease,

(Joey) #318

Ludicrous. Agreed.

Higher population centers are where communicable diseases spread more readily. Regardless of what else people may bother to inhale along with their daily dose of germs.


I hate that so many lives have been lost, but I believe the numbers are going to come in much lower than predicted. This thing has been circulating much longer than what is being told. It is still mostly and older person killer and the overwhelming majority of the deaths in my state since testing has began is people in their 70s, 80s, and 90s. I would guess that a large number of deaths in the last few months attributed to pneumonia in the older population might have been Covid-19 related. The virus is just now hitting it’s peak and will turn for the better shortly in a lot of places…

We had a young person in my state come back from college break from a foreign country in mid-January . He was hospitalized a few days later with an unknown virus. The whole hospital was quarantined because the doctor thought he might of had ebola. The doctor had obviously never seen anything like it. The CDC was even called in. Fortunately he recovered a few days later, but to the best of my knowledge a cause was never found.

My parents also came off a cruise ship in early February with flu like symptoms. The other couple they traveled with also came back with flu like symptoms. It went through my whole family just a few days later. My daughter took a flu test that was negative. I’m really hoping we all had it and survived but I’m not going to chance it and will only gather with people in my small circle.

(Scott) #320

Sure will be nice when we can get the antibody test to determine how many have actually had the virus. The other “quick test” for infection will help too.

(Ken) #321

A classic example of “Correlation does not mean Causation Fallacy”.

(Joey) #322

@Bobt Am curious … did those various cases of flu-like symptoms you’ve described primarily manifest as a dry cough, breathing issues, fever and perhaps temporary loss of smell (i.e., COVID-19 symptoms)?

If so, that’d be some highly relevant data for experts to pursue. Perhaps testing now for presence of antibodies.

If not, these cases were likely unrelated to the current COVID-19 strain spreading around the globe.

Do you happen to know more specifics about each circumstance, either way?


I had sudden onset of dry cough, fever, and headache. I doubt it was Covid-19, but who knows with the varying degrees of symptoms with this virus. Some local healthcare people I know did note that there has been a lot of people with flu like symptoms that were not testing positive. When my daughter was swabbed and it came back negative the person doing the test said that it surprised her because she had every symptom of the flu.

Large numbers of people have no symptoms with Covid-19, so there will be a lot of people with anti-bodies that don’t know it .

430,000 people came to the United States from China while it was spreading over there, 40,000 came after the travel ban. No way that the virus wasn’t over here before testing began on a regular basis.

We need an anti-body test. At least it could help get back to somewhat normal…

(Ken) #324

After talking to what I consider to be a semi-paniced and worried friend, anyone see a story on CNN that purports that Vegans have higher survival rates if ill enough to be hospitalized? My friend may believe it.

For me, I countered: What that really shows is that Vegans are.more likely to get sick enough to require hospitalization.

(Ethan) #325

Korea is an example. We can get out of this around August if we get the right things in place. Failure will mean resurgence. By August, we will have bottlenecked the virus transmission.

We need rapid testing on a large scale for both antigen and antibody. We will open schools in the fall. There won’t be so many cases out there at the start because we were closed for so long. Kids will pass it silently, as will some adults. When somebody is ill, they will need to be tested quickly. If the result is positive for COVID19, that person will be isolated and their contacts traced. All close contacts will also have to be immediately tested. Those that are found positive will be isolated and their contacts traced. That will identify and isolate the minor and Asymptomatic cases as related to a symptomatic case. We will still be limiting close contacts and distancing while wearing masks to make this tracing easier. That means we will not be doing much recreational or even business travel. We will still be working at home if possible. But the kids will be able to go to school. And we will be able to get together with friends and family while being cautious about contact.

That process will continue until there is a vaccine. Some people will still get sick. Some people will still go to the ICU. Some people will still die. Spread from clusters will be halted. We will need to be flexible on the social distancing spectrum. If cases rise, we will distance more. As they fall, we can get closer to our normal way of living.

(Karen) #326

Interesting study.

“ 2017 study indicated a substantially higher mortality burden, at 290 000-650 000 influenza-associated deaths from respiratory causes alone, and a 2019 study estimated 99 000-200 000 deaths from lower respiratory tract infections directly caused by influenza. ”

Current CoVid deaths world wide.

We’ll know more by the end of the year, but maybe it’s more in the influenza range.

(Ellen ) #327

I totally agree joey. We won’t really know the truth for a long time. But I believe the true death rate is understated due to the comorbidities. Time will tell. One thing we should all take from this is that the world is one. We’re all in every crisis together. Big or small. Let’s just be aware that politics and religion don’t matter. One world. Let’s fight…not just COVID-19 but everything…together. On a bit of a lighter note, (or not) I gained 2lbs in 2 days watching the news. I feel like the ONLY thing I’m now getting out of keto is less inflammation in my body. And I’ve been strict! It’s easier finding meat than produce where I live. I’m pissed that I gained. But again KCKO!!!

(Ellen ) #328

I watch CNN and never heard that. Mmmmm

(Ellen ) #329

Seems we won’t know until antibody testing. That will be the great unknown factor in all this.

(Susan) #330

My daughter said this was on Facebook and sent it to me: