Thanks Velvet, helpful – all these trackers get updated differently, and sometimes for good reason. Just today (3/23) the white house briefing said that medical places are now required by law to report their numbers to the CDC daily. Prior to that, different groups doing testing were or weren’t reporting, to various sources, so getting everyone reporting and all to the central place is important.
It’s pretty important that we get clear info on the actual testing itself. For example, things which change what the numbers imply:
1/ Total number of tests
2/ Primary population taking the tests (hospitalized? mild symptoms? random?)
3/ The positive vs. negative (of course)
4/ Type of tests (antibody tests will show who DID have it but recovered and is hence now generally immune to carry)
5/ Symptoms and degree of those testing positive, at the time they test
6/ Demographics of those testing (ethnic groups and specific location - to zip code)
As an example, Italy’s numbers are huge, but a recent review by their own health dept suggests that only about 12% of their deaths attributed to CV19 are actually directly due to CV19 – people who had 1-3 other serious conditions (meaning, they may have died then, or soon, even without it). Other countries, in some cases, only count as CV19 deaths those which definitely ONLY died due to that. Some of the early tests used in various areas had a huge false negative and/or false positive, making the numbers a mess. Some countries (china {cough!}) may have been (or be) reclassifying CV19 deaths as simply pneumonia for political reaspons. And some countries (including ours) and places didn’t have enough testing, and then did have a bunch, which makes the numbers go from low to crazy super fast, but that doesn’t mean the growth is insane, it means the testing is simply reflecting what was mostly already there but unseen.
There are a lot of jokes about numbers, statistics, and lying – most of which are sadly true – but there’s also numbers and stats that are just very confounding.
“A tyranny of averages” was the quote this morning on the WH briefing – that those numbers probably were missing 50-60% of the data – and even a very low death rate is an average, but it’s pretty huge for older people, which matters.
This has been very interesting but I certainly hope at day 16 we are back to work - at least in most areas – with force quarantine on positives and still a massive effort to protect those most vulnerable.