Coronovirus Prediction

(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #225

I’m also drinking a liter+ tonic water daily along with my zinc supplements. Diet tonic water is sweetened with aspartame (most brands) which does not affect me. Zevia tonic water uses stevia if one wants to avoid aspartame. I’m drinking both but Zevia is much more expensive.

Yes, I’m aware of considerations like this:

(Ashley) #226

The first time the lady didn’t go far enough so I had to have it twice :sob:

(Ken) #227

The Gin helps me to not be concerned with it.

Seriously, I buy the diet stuff.


Gold. :+1:

Make sure to splash some on your hands. While enjoying your cocktail.

(PJ) #230

Please… stop. Don’t make me argue. This is just the kind of ‘politics’ ideal to take up on other social media… not here.

(Ellen ) #231

Okay. I understand. I have to speak when people back up false gods. I’ll back off.I know this site is diet/woe discussion. You’re right

(Ellen ) #232

I am going to delete my post

(Troy) #233

Maybe a repost

(Ethan) #234

Be very careful. Yesterday it said only 64 people were serious or critical, but 113 died in that same 24 hours. It’s not correct on that


Here is a constantly updated info site on Corona by Johns Hopkins University:

(PJ) #236

Thanks Velvet, helpful – all these trackers get updated differently, and sometimes for good reason. Just today (3/23) the white house briefing said that medical places are now required by law to report their numbers to the CDC daily. Prior to that, different groups doing testing were or weren’t reporting, to various sources, so getting everyone reporting and all to the central place is important.

It’s pretty important that we get clear info on the actual testing itself. For example, things which change what the numbers imply:

1/ Total number of tests
2/ Primary population taking the tests (hospitalized? mild symptoms? random?)
3/ The positive vs. negative (of course)
4/ Type of tests (antibody tests will show who DID have it but recovered and is hence now generally immune to carry)
5/ Symptoms and degree of those testing positive, at the time they test
6/ Demographics of those testing (ethnic groups and specific location - to zip code)

As an example, Italy’s numbers are huge, but a recent review by their own health dept suggests that only about 12% of their deaths attributed to CV19 are actually directly due to CV19 – people who had 1-3 other serious conditions (meaning, they may have died then, or soon, even without it). Other countries, in some cases, only count as CV19 deaths those which definitely ONLY died due to that. Some of the early tests used in various areas had a huge false negative and/or false positive, making the numbers a mess. Some countries (china {cough!}) may have been (or be) reclassifying CV19 deaths as simply pneumonia for political reaspons. And some countries (including ours) and places didn’t have enough testing, and then did have a bunch, which makes the numbers go from low to crazy super fast, but that doesn’t mean the growth is insane, it means the testing is simply reflecting what was mostly already there but unseen.

There are a lot of jokes about numbers, statistics, and lying – most of which are sadly true – but there’s also numbers and stats that are just very confounding.

“A tyranny of averages” was the quote this morning on the WH briefing – that those numbers probably were missing 50-60% of the data – and even a very low death rate is an average, but it’s pretty huge for older people, which matters.

This has been very interesting but I certainly hope at day 16 we are back to work - at least in most areas – with force quarantine on positives and still a massive effort to protect those most vulnerable.

(Ethan) #237

We still don’t have the tests! Day 16? What a joke? You think we will have tests available by then for everybody who needs one to be sure they don’t spread it? When you have been around anybody with it, you need to be tested to see if you are a silent carrier. Not in our country! We don’t have the tests. We won’t have the tests. The jobs can’t come back until the governments itself together

(PJ) #238

It’s coming and will be a lot more en masse before long. Yesterday for example over 5000 new cases in New York, and no number I can see on the total negative but those are WAY more (even though they’re only testing symptomatic right now), and all of those numbers are tests done just in that one day in that one place. But right now they’re sending the tests to the ‘hot spots’. The distribution will spread and increase a lot over the next couple weeks.

The one thing about behemoth-size companies and countries is that they are lumbering and slow to do anything, but once they do and get going, the ramp up becomes exponential and huge before long. Up till now there were various tests most of which had so many false results they were more harm than help. They finally have good ones, plus the briefing today she said they’re getting closer to a home-test and a finger-stick test both of which would radically up the speed and quantity that can be handled. It doesn’t help that this is the flu season too, and so things like tests and the machines that evaluate it, are also at peak season for that, which is competitive.

On the bright side, a massive amount of BS bureaucracy red tape in all these federal agencies has been recognized and removed during this. (Even stuff like ability to repurpose one kind of machine to do the work of something slightly different, had regulations against it, and removing those increases resources a lot.) I mean, sure hoping we never see something like this again – though we will have a fall, and a couple more years of spring/fall, wave – but at least a lot of the stuff that bungled, fumbled and delayed us THIS time, won’t next time.

(Being government I’m sure there will be yet new versions though…)

(PJ) #239

Nope. I think we will have likely medication to mitigate the severe cases, hopefully more emphases in the public understanding about contagious behaviors and protecting those vulnerable – and a need to reopen areas that are not under the highest intensity in order to prevent the entire country from crashing. National destruction is a domino that is utter wreckage to the nation and even much of the rest of the world, so there’s gotta be some middle ground.


Here is a church based health center partnering with a private lab in Birmingham, AL to expedite testing.

They were able to give 2200 tests in 5 days, which is beyond amazing given the near impossibility of getting a test in the area.
It’s a good read if you’re looking for some light in our ever lengthening tunnel.

(Doug) #241

Things will necessarily change very fast. The U.S. is rapidly increasing testing and reporting of virus cases. We started from a relatively low level, and the rate of increase is unsustainable for very long. There’s still “a lot” of undiagnosed and unreported cases that will work themselves into the numbers, but there’s also going to be a built-in slowing down of things.

In the last week, the number of reported cases in the U.S. increased by 9.38 times. Do that 4 more weeks, and where are we? It would be more cases than there are people in the U.S., so yeah - things will slow down (while still being potentially catastrophic).

(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #242

Here are some real numbers. We learned from the Diamond Princess that even in a captive space with no escape, 83% of people exposed to COVID-19 didn’t get infected. Of those that did, 50% showed no symptoms. There were 634 confirmed cases out of 3711 passengers and crew. 306 showed symptoms of varying severity. 7 passengers died.

(Bunny) #243

Dr. Peter Attia has a dedicated webpage on this:

Up-to-Date Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19) Information

Patient Memos:

Update on SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19: General Guidance (March 19, 2020)

Shows 4 different medications currently being used to treat it.

(Ethan) #244

The diamond princess did put measures in place to slow the spread when a person was shown to have it. While those measures didn’t stop the spread, it likely had an effect. If passengers had been allowed to contact each other more for longer (read indefinitely), the spread could easily have reached the other 83%

White House says NYC metro has infection rate of 0.1%, and the ICUs are nearly full now. With even 17% infection rate in a few weeks, which is what the Princess Diamond showed, the area collapses


Dr John Morrison has the trajectory in different countries. And the mortality rates, which are higher than I want to risk!

He was a nurse educator and communicates clearly and breaks down the jargon so that it is clear.

Didn’t read the whole thread, apologies if this link is already posted here.