Coronovirus Prediction

(Jane) #205

I will tell him he is wrong when we have our next meeting!!! :wink:

He doesn’t live in Amsterdam so maybe just the small community he lives in stopped testing… or he was misinformed

(Paulene ) #206

I stay away from Keto sites on FB for that reason too.

(Jane) #207

On a positive note… my years of “programming” that saturated fats are BAD and you need to drain your bacon strips on (short supply) paper towels …

I had an “AHA” moment! Don’t use paper towels and transfer your bacon to the plate with the bacon grease dripping!!! :laughing:

I need those paper towels to clean up accidents from Moose puppy, not bacon grease.


I used to carefully dry all the fat off the bacon with paper towels - no more. I now add some extra fat from the pan to the plate :slight_smile:

(Todd Allen) #209

What looks to many like over reaction is due to this virus exhibiting the capacity for strong exponential growth rates in both infections and deaths. There has been a lot of talk of the flu killing tens of thousands a year. That isn’t scary because it is relatively predictable and spread out over much of the year. This virus on its current growth trajectory could have terrifying daily death tolls soon. There have been 58 Covid-19 deaths in the US today. Going back day by day for the past week the daily body counts were 41, 23, 18, 11, 8, 8 and 3. Projecting forward 1 week the daily body counts could easily be 80, 110, 150, 210, 300, 420, 580. If it continues it won’t take long for as many people to die from this in a day as currently die from flu in a year. This increase in death rate has been occurring due to the increase in cases while our health care system has spare capacity. If the health care system gets overwhelmed the death rate as a percentage of cases could go up by a factor of 10 or more. If the daily number of new cases continues to explode the result could be millions dying this year in the US. Countries with less resources may be at greater risk.

This is why some are very concerned and so much has been shut down. Hopefully our measures will start to kick in over the next week or two and mellow our death rate growth trajectory. In China it appears they have beaten this for the moment but their actions were very different. It remains to be seen if our measures will have a similar effect. My guess is our current actions will help but not enough and greater measures closer to China’s will be coming but due to the delay the costs will be vastly higher.

(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #210


From Stephen Hahn’s presentation:

…At the same time, we’re also working through different mechanisms to actually get drugs into the hands of providers and patients.

The President mentioned this, but one of the mechanisms is called compassionate use. Let me just tell you about this. If there’s an experimental drug that’s potentially available, a doctor could ask for that drug to be used in a patient. We have criteria for that and very speedy approval for that. The important thing about compassionate use – and that’s what the President meant, “This is even beyond Right to Try” – is that we get to collect the information about that. Because one of the things that I’ll promise the American people is we will collect the data and then make the absolute right decisions based upon those data about the safety and efficacy of the treatments…

In the short term, we’re looking at drugs that are already approved for other indications. So they’re already approved, as the President said, for other diseases. As an example, many Americans have read studies and heard media reports about this drug, chloroquine, which is an anti-malarial drug. It’s already approved, as the President said, for the treatment of malaria, as well as an arthritis condition.

That’s a drug that the President has directed us to take a closer look at, as to whether an expanded-use approach to that could be done to actually see if that benefits patients. And again, we want to do that in the setting of a clinical trial — a large, pragmatic clinical trial — to actually gather that information and answer the question that needs to be answered and — asked and answered.


(PJ) #211

This link shows all the countries’ current stats and if you click the country name it shows details.


Oh my. I never knew that was a thing… I thought people who didn’t want bacon fat or just much fat simply ate chicken breast or something :smiley:
Wasting food was always so odd, foreign and sad to me. Once I see someone putting a nice little block of butter into a pan, melting it, then almost drying the pan with a paper towel in a video… It was very painful to watch. I almost never throw out any food (sometimes I can’t help and some vegetable or fruit gets spoiled but it’s extremely rare. no chance for it with my animal products now :slight_smile: even the odd dried out leftover yolk is good food for the cats. by the way, throwing out eggs is a sin to me. I don’t like wasting anything but EGGS, seriously? anything but that. especially yolks, I totally worship them, they are my precious… :D).

I rather not think about coronavirus in the near future, I overdid it. But it’s hard to escape. Fortunately the numbers for my tiny country aren’t very bad this far. But considering barely anyone got tested… Well, we will see what the virus did this far some weeks later.
More or less famous Hungarian people ask others to stay home in videos and many old persons obviously don’t care as I have read… My own relatives are careful, at least…

(Scott) #213

A walmart employee said it best yesterday. “two days ago customers were afraid to be in the store” “Today they are coming in as an entire family and stopping to socialize with with others because they are bored”. This is not how this is going to work and I see trouble ahead.

(Natasha) #214

I was wondering about this the other day after looking a some statistics. One of the things I considered is that this age group was most heavily hit as they would have more likely been the demographic returning malnourished and already weakened from WW1?


So I was reading today, and see that France, Australia and China are all reporting that after multiple tests, the Hydroxycholorquinine coupled with Azithromicin is 100% effective in treating the virus in 3-6 days. Maybe some lives can be saved quicker than we thought!

And, in other news on the street (nothing official), Michigan will likely be going into complete lockdown mode.

(Ethan) #216

I am allergic to the Azithromicin, but I am excited to see this. It seemed to indicate that it stops the shedding of the virus in 6 days in 75% of the population. I didn’t see that it cures patients in ARDS.

(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #217

For those of you who may be unaware of it, full chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine discussion here:

(PJ) #218

I am stunned at how fast it went from the fed’s medical experts saying “minimize social interaction and protect the vulnerable” to NY CA IL going full-bore into “close every business but the tiniest fraction.”

I hope it’s worth it, and it better end soon, or we won’t need to worry about CV19 anymore, because we’ll have about 400,000 other much bigger problems for individual and national survival on the list before that.

(Ashley) #219

I’m in Michigan, just got tested this morning. The swabs are crazy, the regular flu swabs are nothing compared to these!

(PJ) #220

Maybe they just didn’t have the normal ones. I’ve heard even that has been a real problem in supplies.

In great part because the whole nation had tons of supplies of all kinds (masks, gloves, swabs, regeant, etc.) on cargo ships headed here, normal restock inventory, and China turned everything around and took it home since it needed it. So it would have been tough anyway but losing what we’d already planned on, without warning, sure didn’t help. That would mess up even ordinary inventory plans, never mind extraordinary needs.

The only possible bright side of all this crap is possibly getting a lot more of our mfg brought home, or to other and distributive countries. Unfortunately the downsides are (already) infinite.

(Ashley) #221

The swab goes far into the nasal cavity, I think it’s pretty normal for this test!

(PJ) #222

Gross. :slight_smile:

(Ken) #223

Looks like I’ll be passing on the testing.


Ken. Just check the amount of sugar in that tonic water.