Question about Coronovirus?


#41

It is needed, though. Too many people would die if only the most sick and old people would be safe (not like it can be done, of course but some steps may be made). Disrupting life is inavoidable. Grandparents couldn’t be with their other family members, not quite healthy important people should stay at home and so on.
Oh and if just a few percentages of all people need a hospital bed in a too short time… That’s too much, fatality rate go up even if the case isn’t too serious but it becomes that without any care…

We need to do what we do now, at least, to mitigate losses and problems. I am glad goverments around here aren’t the downplaying type, I wouldn’t be happy with millions of cases in this tiny country where hospital stuff is overwhelmed to begin with (very underpaid and overworked, I find it amazing we have doctors and nurses at all. not personal information as I don’t even go near hospitals, usually. my ability to avoid them is useful if a country has a totally overwhelmed medical care. I’ve read an article and yep, it makes sense… if we don’t flatten the curve, any medical help easily will be sluggish and/or inadequate or simply non-existent due to triage).

We can’t predict this yet. I see no slowing. Chinese doesn’t matter, they did it great, Italy don’t. More cases every day, the same with Spain and the US. Few tests, long incubation period, there are surely way, way more cases and some of them are very serious but there are no symptoms yet.
It just started, I still say this. No exponential grows this far but we can’t say there won’t be several millions of deaths, we simply have no data to know that. I really hope there won’t but it’s pretty clear it would be if we wouldn’t care, we have enough data to make some educated guesses - with a vague range but it will be enough to take things seriously.

I don’t even understand. How anyone can consider it not very serious when we just look at Italy? Some other countries will have that many cases soon, maybe it’s no such a big deal for the US but there will be lots of small European countries, with many too fragile persons and a not necessarily ready health care system… It will hit them hard. No one knows how hard but it’s serious.

But I thought and wrote about these things enough, I try to focus to my life, I don’t need to worry about myself anyway. And it’s so pointless.
We can talk about a few months later. Oh, the flu numbers, I consider comparing the numbers very unfair 2-3 weeks after the first cases appeared in many countries… Even the people who got infected right then usually still fighting with the virus. There are too few closed cases yet and the numbers will be very different for different countries, we already see this and it’s quite obvious anyway as many important factors are different.
Talk about numbers later. We surely will see things differently even in 2 months but if someone want to compare flu vs coronavirus death numbers, let’s wait more. How long is a flu season? Several months?
And I just hope it really will be over in a few months. Probably not but almost…? If we will have a vaccine, that would be “enough”, this will be just one of the usual serious sicknesses. Until it mutates in an interesting way, one can never know, viruses do that all the time but pandemics are somewhat rare (they happen too often to my liking, I was so okay without any in my life until now).


(squirrel-kissing paper tamer) #42

Why social distancing is needed…


#43

And we obviously don’t know the final mortality rate yet, not even vaguely.

Deathrate for closed cases is 43% in Italy at this point (well, several hours ago, new data arrives rarely if it’s Italy). A bit smaller for Spain.
Sure, most of the active cases will recover, it can’t stay this high but Italy will have an unusually high mortality rate due to various factors (unless there will be zillion cases and the healthier, younger ones bring the mortality rate down).
I watch the number of serious cases too. And it’s high for Italy. Very low for Germany (they can’t be serious, 2 serious cases for 13 thousands?) and the US. The latter has 59% deaths regarding the closed cases, by the way, not like it matters much, it just shows it barely started and we can’t say anything yet, the numbers are totally off at this point.

We know we can expect about 3% normally but if the health care system gets overwhelmed, it’s way, way higher. Italy has very many elderly people, it could expect a higher mortality rate anyway but with this many cases every day, that brings the number up. It will be very bad for Italy and less bad for most countries if I try to predict things with my optimistic attitude. China or South-Korea will have okay numbers, it’s almost sure, I think… And the rest of the world? No idea. Surely very, very varied. But if there will be proper actions, the mortality rate shouldn’t be way over 4%, I would think.

Eh, I just wait for some months and will see. It’s not like I can affect much of it with my tiny personal comments :slight_smile: I just can’t get it out of my head.


(Eric - The patient needs to be patient!) #44

We are hunkered down, wife, 2 adult children. Social distancing in place except, oldest will work at a library soon at the window. Yikes. Patrons will not be able to go into the library.

Wife and I are doing remote work as long as the schools we work for keep paying us. I’m hopeful that the 3 of us that are keto are somewhat safer. Non-keto is youngest at 22.

I’m not sleeping well because of worry. But I’m starting to get to a better place to just let me do what I can and worry less. Praying is helping.


#45

The non-keto is probably the safest if there are no serious health problems either, being young is already a good thing… Diet is very important but it’s just one thing (or two, how long are we on it…).
I am quite sure I was way more healthy on high-carb than the average ketoer (though we possibly define “healthy” differenly). Good genetics, young body, no sickness or disease… Ketoers often have every kind of serious problems, well, they are people, it’s not surprising. The average person is very unhealthy, I can’t even imagine.
My high-carber SO is even more healthy than me.
Of course, it matters what kind of keto or high-carb diet we do and we have different ideal diets anyway. Our diet is obviously very important and we should do it well, to raise our chances for good health, resilience, more energy, better mood and so on. But it’s only one factor and there are even more important ones, we just can’t change those.


(Scott) #46

I am beginning to wonder if all the closures and distance measures are merely spreading out the death rate without actually changing it. So my question is this, for the people that do get hospitalized does this treatment “save” them or is it just providing comfort in their time of recovery or demise without affecting outcome? This is a serious question after hearing on 2KD podcast that 80% of us will have had the virus within a year anyway and the main point of this plan is to flatten the spike for hospitals.


#47

I forgot to add before that of course, many of the mild cases are and will be unknown. We can see a more or less right mortality rate only if very many people gets tested.
Without it, the more serious cases will come up and the mild ones may go unnoticed.
But if you all read about such things like I did, you know this anyway.
There is a very funny Hungarian vet with a YT channel, I think he made quite sure the viewers understand these things. It’s amazing how much you can teach with clear, simple, very funny pictures. I am sure even a simple but not totally stupid one who came for some laugh understands certain things now.


(Jeff S) #48

Link?


(Doug) #49

The rationale behind keeping your distance/social isolation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?fbclid=IwAR2jsBMraVXwwFAS9oyMf0WajeQfDAT-F7TaGdnFX5N7jtq52YFXnocNdPA


(Doug) #50

Even though this deal is potentially lethal/disturbing/a pain in the butt/financially harmful for many of us, it’s also really interesting. Here’s comparing Italy and the U.S. The U.S. is behind Italy in the overall timeline of the development of virus cases, but Italy went on lockdown at the point where the U.S. is now.


(Ethan) #51

Can you add info to that maybe about the deaths also reported? That could be an interesting comparison


(Doug) #52

Sorry, Ethan - I just copied that chart off a Facebook post; I didn’t put it together. You’re right - we need to see the numbers of deaths too.


(Bunny) #53

Just looking at this through a search engine looks scary!


#54

It’s a bit early with only 268 closed cases in the US (at least I see this data, it’s obviously more right now) but indeed, it will be interesting and important to see that too…


(Doug) #55

Agreed - and I still have a sense of unreality about it. However, the numbers are almost surely not lying with respect to the U.S. - I can’t think of any reason the U.S. should be somehow “magically protected” while not doing anything demonstrably better than the other countries with similar data.

It’s going to be an interesting next few weeks.


(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #56

Hydroxychloroquine, Plaquenil and generic, from Canada ships worldwide:

https://www.canadapharmacyonline.com/DrugInfo.aspx?name=Plaquenil1854


(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #57

(Alec) #58

I fear the US is in serious trouble. There are a number of factors:

  1. It is generally agreed that the only way to stop the vast majority of the population getting the virus is extreme social distancing. Lockdown. Not just dabbling. The US are not doing this. BTW, my country (Australia) is not doing much better.
  2. The US health system has the fewest beds per capita than most developed countries. Fewer than Italy
  3. The very low provision for paid sickness leave means people will generally attend work even if they are not feeling great as they need to get paid. This will mean the spread will be quicker than elsewhere.
  4. There is a tranche of US society that does not have health insurance: they will be very slow to ask for medical aid for fear of the medical bills. This will spread the virus quicker.
  5. A quick spread will swamp the US health system very quickly.
  6. The death rate with a slowdown in spread so the medical system can cope can be 1% or even lower. If the health system is swamped (eg Italy) it could get as high as 8-10% (seriously gulp!!!).
  7. You can’t fight an enemy you can’t see. Right now the US testing regime is woeful. It needs to be multiplied by 10 or 50 and now if this is going to be slowed down.

Do the sums: if the thing is not seriously slowed down and the ICU beds and oxygen tents are just not there, then 320m x 8% = 26m people.

The whole country needs to go into lockdown and now, today. Not in 4 weeks time “when it starts to get bad”. It is simply too late by then. But the country seems to have the view if we keep other people out, we will be just fine. Wrong. It is already in, and you need to deal with it right now.

The experts are saying the actual current real number of people infected in the US is 10 times the official number. These carriers don’t know they are carriers. If they don’t go into isolation right now, the spread will be quick.

The liberty part of the US culture will make this much more difficult to contain than in more compliant or authoritarian cultures eg Singapore or China. Lockdown is difficult, but absolutely crucial to success. Somehow the US authorities will need to get the population to comply.

I am hoping and praying I am just plain wrong. I will be really happy if I am.


(Full Metal KETO AF) #59

@Alecmcq Hey good See you again Alec. Had any good butter lately? :joy::joy::joy:There’s some evidence that the virus doesn’t do as well in hot climates. I hope Australia’s infection rates stay low but it may go Southern Hemisphere as it cools off down there and warms up here. At least that’s my prediction. :cowboy_hat_face:


(Doug) #60

Alec - good points. The U.S. Congress did pass a new law that provides for people getting 12 weeks paid sick leave (out of 14 weeks “protected leave,” I think), if due to corona virus, in addition to whatever existing sick time off they have accued.

However, that won’t really make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things, as you aptly laid it out.