Question about Coronovirus?

#21

I’m glad you’re getting more sleep but closing all leisure time business (and all arts productions) is sending my local economy into a tailspin. I have friends who will likely have to close businesses they’ve had for decades, and my husband and I will be hard put to pay our mortgage because we’ve had nearly all our spring events cancelled. No one I know is complaining - we obviously need to do what’s necessary to flatten that curve - but “can’t we take a break from those for a while” feels pretty glib for those of us who might lose our homes.

(Scott) #22

Anything that disrupts commerce is going to have a negative impact. I have already seen some businesses close. To those owners this is catastrophic vs someone who is going to stay home and binge watch TV and save money by not going out. Not saying they don’t care but just pointing out the contrast in their two worlds.

(Jeff S) #23

The unfortunate irony is that the better we are at flattening the curve, the longer the economic and societal implications will last. Dragging it out instead of having a dramatic spike is the whole point.

#24

I’ve been worried about this as well.

My current thought is that we’re all stuck in a false dichotomy: save the elderly (and immuno-compromised) OR protect the economy. What if we had to come up with solutions that saved the elderly AND protected the economy. Lots of super-smart and creative thinkers in this world, and I’m sure there are a lot of great solutions.

(charlie3) #25

There is a lack of time. Pubic officials believe the the medical system will be overloaded in many places in a few weeks. Can they let that happen while taking no counter measures? I would hesitate to do that in their position. But there’s only so long they’ll get away with locking down the economy. There’s some bittersweet to paying medical insurance for decades, then need care but it’s not available because of the epidemic.

#26

I’m not disagreeing with the policies in place right now (well, actually I disagree a little but it’s just that I think that the work in protecting the vulnerable and shoring up medical system can be stronger and more targeted); I was just letting you know that for many of us, the non-medical effects are dramatic and painful, that it’s not just a question of missing out on the bar scene for a few weeks.

(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #27



#28

I watch the numbers and definitely see no downturn at all. It barely started anyway, we know nothing at this point (except that it can be VERY bad if we aren’t careful. the numbers go up like crazy in many places). China is special, not every country can do the same - and it’s not a given China will be safe in the near future, of course.
We can’t make good predictions at this point. The economy will suffer and many old or unhealthy people will die in some countries but actual numbers? No one can say much about that.

Humanity will survive, sure, no sane person ever thought we all will die… Most of us will survive it with mild symptoms for sure (or won’t get infected at all). It still causes huge problems and millions of people may die. They surely would if we wouldn’t take this seriously enough.

(Scott) #29

I heard that Boris Johnson was thinking that “we might as well let everyone get it and get the whole thing over with” An advisor tapped him and asked “you do realize that we will have 1.5 million deaths if we do that” That is when he changed his mind. I heard this on talk radio and have no way of knowing if it is based on fact.

#30

It would be okay for me personally - except half of my family would probably die of it.
It would be Russian roulette with the old, sick ones… Like my aunt and my SO’s Mom (not very old but has serious health problems).

Not only the very sick or old people would be in grave danger. Death rates would be much higher without health care… Flattening the curve is very important. And the economy still wouldn’t be great with all those dead and grieving people I imagine…

(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #31

The following was published in 2007. Did anyone learn anything?

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is a novel virus that caused the first major pandemic of the new millennium (89, 180, 259). The rapid economic growth in southern China has led to an increasing demand for animal proteins including those from exotic game food animals such as civets. Large numbers and varieties of these wild game mammals in overcrowded cages and the lack of biosecurity measures in wet markets allowed the jumping of this novel virus from animals to human (353, 376). Its capacity for human-to-human transmission, the lack of awareness in hospital infection control, and international air travel facilitated the rapid global dissemination of this agent.

Coronaviruses are well known to undergo genetic recombination (375), which may lead to new genotypes and outbreaks. The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored.

(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #32

This appears to be somewhat of a dupe of the Caltech link I posted above. Different viewpoint, is all.

(John) #33

Yes it appears to be slowing in areas that it has been at for awhile but look at the measures they took to get it to do so. if china and Italy didnt go on lock down how bad would it have got. Now ask yourself are we doing enough because I can tell you in the central valley we are just starting our uptick not down. Keep in mind we also dont have the true numbers from china and probably never will. I dont know the answer on what to do but I am getting tired of hearing people down play this thing. every country has their own specialist looking at this thing and are coming up with the same conclusions but we have all kinds of facebook docs here in the US that say its just a bad cold so thats what people believe. This isnt the end of the world but it is for sure worse then alot of people in the US are taking it. I am also tired of hearing that the flu kills more people than the corona virus does. Thats because the flu is here to stay . We possible have a chance to fully stop this thing before its here to stay also but we can only do that if everybody does their part. If not we will possibly lose a million or more people a year. That is not OK.

(Bunny) #34

Looks like this virus and all forms of it, is ancient in origin and part of the microbiome of birds, round eared bats and reptiles, it is a natural part of the animals skin cell microbiome in which they are immune; how it transferred (mutated) over into humans is puzzling in which it was once harmless to humans?

(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #35

As I pointed out above, and linked to a relevant analysis, too many conclusions are being jumped to and too many decisions and drastic actions imposed based on a whole lot of fragmentary data, unfounded suppositions and irrational fear. This is not to minimize what may be a very serious situation, or not. But it’s a sure way to guarantee the ‘cure’ may be worse than the ‘disease’. Let’s protect the high risk groups as best we can, not shut down the world economy to protect everyone when that clearly is not needed.

(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #36

One man’s opinions, true, but raises very valid points.

(Dirty Lazy Keto'er, Sucralose freak ;)) #37

Grandparents, or elderly parents yes, but I don’t believe their has been even one death of any person under 10 years of age…

(Ethan) #38

It’s also only overwhelmed the healthcare system in one city, which was able to shut down completely for weeks and build temporary facilities for triaging and caring for critically ill. It’s about to overwhelm a region in Italy now… that’s when the death toll goes way up. No treatment

(Michael - When reality fails to meet expectations, the problem is not reality.) #39

Clinical trial result:

(Alec) #40

Already happened. Italy:
Infections 35713
Deaths 2978
Deathrate 8.3%

Anyone happy with those odds?