Pro-Maskers, you gonna keep wearing them?


#101

Got it. So you’re proposing that we keep masks until the shots are authorized for all ages. Sorry - I had misunderstood. I think they’re hoping for EUA by sometime in the winter for younger children. Is that about right?


(bulkbiker) #102

Well aware of BH thanks but I’d still say that a “plausible” hypothesis can still be easily disproven… all swans are white for example needs only one black one to be disproved. It can never be “re-proved” as it is simply wrong.

Just because something is plausible does not make it correct… as for Connecticut looks pretty seasonal to me…initially suppression “works” then respiratory disease season comes around again.


(bulkbiker) #103

I really doubt that statistical significance would arise from something being “minimally effective”.


(Old Baconian) #104

“Statistically significant” is a term that refers to an observed effect that is not likely to be the result of pure chance. A very small effect, one that is not really relevant clinically, can still be statistically significant.

It’s one of the reasons Bradford-Hill said that an effect wasn’t even worth investigating unless the risk ratio was at least 2.0. You will note that in nutrition research, a lot of the risk ratios are in the neighbourhood of 1.15 - 1.35. They are still statistically significant, however, which is why they get press.


(bulkbiker) #105

Which surely is the best reason to treat “statistically significant” as at best taken with a pinch of salt?


#106

Think you know how effective masks are? Give these quizzes a shot: https://www.covidchartsquiz.com. Let us know how you did!


(Jane) #107

Data from my state. The red lines are approximately when the mask mandate went into effect and when it was ended. Some may argue it “could have been much worse” without masks but that is speculation. At the very least we should have seen a step change 2 weeks after the mask madate was implemented and when it was lifted and we did not.


(Old Baconian) #108

I’m not sure what your reason is for resisting the term “statistically significant.” Statistical significance is a measure of how non-random the findings are, and that is important to know. Findings that happened more or less by chance are not worthwhile, whereas findings that are clearly not random are important. You will look decidedly foolish if you say something such as, “These data are statistically significant, so we know they are worthless.”

Clinical significance, on the other hand, is a different and equally important criterion. If a drug can lower your blood pressure by 1.0%, with a statistical significance of p < 0.000001, that means the drug is very likely to perform as advertised. The effect is about as real as we can measure, assuming the p-value was properly calculated. But clinically speaking, is lowering a patient’s BP from 138/95 to 137/94 worth the cost or the side effects? A reduction of 1% is not likely to be worthwhile, but a reduction of 10% or 25% would be another matter, now wouldn’t it?

So both clinical significance and statistical significance are important, though different, measures of the value of medical research. A clinically significant effect that is not reproducible is just as worthless as a statistically valid effect that is very small. On the other hand, a clinically significant effect that is also highly statistically significant is important to pay attention to. Bradford-Hill’s analysis of data regarding the correlation between tobacco smoking and lung cancer showed risks to smokers in the neighbourhood of 10-35 times the risk to non-smokers, which was significant enough right there, but the statistical significance of the results put them beyond question. Bradford-Hill would not have bothered if the risk ratio had only been 1.35 times, because that would not be clinically very significant, no matter how statistically significant.

The moral of the story is that if you are going to criticise data, base your criticism on the right criteria, or you will look a fool.


(Vic) #109

Jane posted data, the statistically significant influence of masks is impressive :kissing_heart:


(Jane) #110

Not surprised considering all the states who mandated it and all experienced the typical bell curve of a new viral infection.

I was floored the airlines allowed people to eat and drink on the flights at the height of the pandemic when so many businesses were locked down. Even though they weren’t serving anything you could bring your own food on board, take your mask off and consume while sitting shoulder-to-shoulder to a stranger.

Guess that tells you what kind of pull the airlines have!


(bulkbiker) #111

Nice…


(Jane) #112

My state is almost completely back to normal behavior and nobody has asked for a vaccine card yet. People are shaking hands again when they meet, opening doors for each other instead of backing away, buffets are open. Nice to see smiling faces again and be able to understand conversations.


(Old Baconian) #113

Don’t take it personally; it’s the generic “you.” Notice also that it was preceded by an if.


(David Cooke) #114

They keep pushing back the date when tourists (with vacc. certificates, etc) will be allowed to enter. At the moment there’s a lot of bureaucratic bumf to get through and you need to be ready to PAY for a quarantine period in a three star hotel. (How long? depends on who you ask, may change on arrival).
Deaths from Covid were at 40 (forty) for a long time last year, went up to around 100 and are now at around 400+. One source was construction and food industries, importing cheap labour, illegally, from Burma, and recently to everyone’s surprise, the prisons.
Much talk about “Dirty Farangs” (that’s Caucasians) arising recently, as many refuse to wear masks and get arrested. (They can afford a bribe).
I was obliged to fill out an application for vaccination yesterday, which I will have to pay for, and probably won’t get before October.
Thailand is a great country, I love it, but this kind of thing does sour things.


#115

We keep the mandatory masks outside, it seems.
Almost half of the population is vaccinated in Hungary, active cases drops like crazy along with new cases and deaths… (Still number one for reported deaths per population and it won’t change very soon.) We will see what the future will bring.

The village doctor reached out to me but I told him I already had my vaccine. I am a bit sad I didn’t wait so I need to travel to the hospital again but I will survive, it’s only 25km (with lots of walk, hopefully it won’t be raining, that wouldn’t be sunny)… And I got Sputnik at least, it’s barely available now…
So we have this phase, people get phone calls… Vaccination goes strong, it seems there are not so many people who is very much against it.

Mask wearing outside… It’s okay, some people ignore it but most don’t.
We have plastic cards to show for places (a big reason for my vaccination this week was that I want the option to enter museums) but some workplaces are crazy. My SO’s brother needs to keep the paper he got at vaccination on him to be able to work, the card isn’t good enough for them (and the vaccination happened early initiated by the company due to being related to health… sorry if my English isn’t right)…

(I didn’t came earlier but I didn’t talk about sexual orientation related to boobs. It’s an aesthetic thing :slight_smile: I might be not totally serious, I can understand not liking boobs, tastes differ, not only sexual orientations. But when someone goes farther than that, that is odd to me when it’s an innocent body part like boobs. Just molds with nipples similar to everyone’s, there are way worse looking human parts but yep, taste, okay. Maybe society doesn’t help either, I mean, someone with not the most common sexual orientation may find annoyingly much emphasis on certain things and it can make something already not liked more off-putting…?)


(Nicole) #116

Me too


#117

Yay! Mandatory mask wearing rules outside are lifted as Hungary reached 5 000 000 vaccinated people already (more than half of our population)!

I watch vaccine numbers now because they are more interesting than covid case numbers but I look at those sometimes as well. There are some exotic vaccines too, Hungary has only the 6 more known ones (the vaccine data site lists only 5 but we have J&J too).


#118

6? WOW! In the US we have 3! If I do decide to get one it’s going to be J&J.


#119

my brother got J&J and got sick as a dog for 2 days, he was like in confusion land…and my hubby got J&J and he sailed thru without literally any effects.

Me, I ain’t getting nothing LOL well, at least for a longer time. I am a wait and see type on this one. Plus of course I AM such the anti pill and more person, eh, just me and my type I guess.


#120

I’m with ya, my thinking is since J&J is a normal vaccine and not mRNA it’s really no different than getting a season flu shot which they pull out of their ass a couple months ahead of time every year. I’d argue the J&J vaccine is actually less rushed… although clearly still rushed, but at least it’s just doing what normal vaccines do and letting my immune system build the antibodies vs RNA instructions to do it. I would have gotten the thing already but all the gov’t threats “if you don’t get it” has flipped my teenager switch and now I’m basically in rebellion mode.

Originally I was waiting until it was actually an FDA approved vaccine, then I’d get it. I’ve also considered making my maker for when I’ll do it when Canada approves it, while I’m not fan of socialized heath care, Canada is financially tied to those people’s health forever, it (may) make them more careful with making it actually approved or not because of that (maybe).

I have less than zero trust for the USFDA at this point, never really did before but REALLY don’t now.