It's over - Ivor Cummins discusses the data (Let's stick with COVID) - this title got UNfiddled

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(Butter Withaspoon) #21

Excellent video so far, and a cautionary tale of what happens when you step outside your area of expertise and float in the ocean of confirmation bias, seeing only the tips of many pretty icebergs.

Being naturally suspicious yet curious has saved my health in the past.


#22

I’m enamoured by the whole package. Years of trust building by listening to the Fat Emperor. That wonderful Irish accent. And, yes, of course the graphs and patterns. :smiling_face_with_three_hearts: I learn by pictures, not tables nor words writ.

Now you have gone and labelled Ivor our 21st Century Ancel Keys :pensive:

Are you brave enough to do that straight to his Twitter face?

It’s incredibly interesting to cast the Keys shadow upon Ivor. It helps dull his halo and maybe I can see it better.

If the choice is between an Appeal to Ignorance and Ivor, as it appears to be in this superficial skim of the discussion and the overlay of character assassination on a low carb leader, I’ll still listen to what Ivor has to say, and with my trust in his problem solving experience, believe it as a start point.

@richard is a giant in this keto world so he sits on this see saw as well, so I’ll go and follow the breadcrumbs and hope there are some pictures and graphs to help me understand better.

You guys will just have to wait for me to catch up. I’m not in the tweeterverse, where this is rapidly playing out. That’s an environment in which I feel I would not survive with a one keystroke slip, or failed autocorrect between being a wit or a twit. Twitter is like Versailles under the rule of the Sun King. Reputations created and destroyed by commentary rather than action.

@bokkiedog Nick, you are a wonderful writer. You use words as a lash and a lead. Like with Ivor, I’m entertained by you, and as I am a consumerist human your message is palatable. So, with my newly cast, halo busting, sceptic light filter switched on by the discussion I see the way anew, the path is marked with bulldozed proceed with caution signs.


(Ellenor Bjornsdottir (spare me thy resistant starch spiel)) #23

He kind of is nowadays


#24

The ball! The ball! Why are we playing the player? Surely it is the data, or the argument presented that needs our attention and not the man?

If we prove and label Ivor as the modern Ancel Keys, he becomes branded. That may remain lifelong as such marks do. Careful how you wave the hot poker, I suggest.

I’m still held by Ivor’s Celtic fae fey glamour, and feel that he has worthy things to say and contribute.


#25

Yet to watch this. Does it align with @richard ‘s link? I prefer the visual input.

Ok there are going to be multiple edits to follow as I collect the information (and apply my biases for the purpose of discussion).

Reading the Alex Selby critique referred to by @richard

See how he makes definite statements about what will happen without a hint of uncertainty. Such (rather unscientific) statements from such a high profile scientists have the potential to be used by Ivor Cumminses the world over and cause carnage (“Who are you to disagree with a Nobel Prize winner?”). Yet when Levitt is proved wrong he just shrugs and says “oops”

Selby goes on to make definite statements without references:

But it’s completely wrong to assume the infection is done when we’re at the bottom of the curve. If distancing is relaxed enough the infection will certainly be back.

So, I read the critique. It’s a good read. Thank you. I was affected by the hypocrisy in the language, but tried to temper that with looking for facts as best I can discern them from my average intelligence. I was also affected by @richard ‘s Appeal to Authority “bone-fide genius”, and that helped highlight Ivor’s similar appeal to Levitt ( the Nobel prize winner). That was enlightening. And I, similarly am appealing to the authority of Richard and Ivor (as it suits my beliefs). It’s like balancing scales to weigh the points in a rocky boat, the sea of investigation is constantly shifting, and during fearful pandemic times, quite turbulent.

I come out of the experience knowing less but knowing more by that. I think that type of learning has a sociological graphed curve along which I have progressed. Dunning-Kruger effect?

Has anyone got a link to a current Israel graph? Now that time has moved on a bit.

Now I will watch the linked video as Selby and @PaulL suggest.

Thanks for holding the boat while I do some swimming in the muddied waters.

Who is Dr. Pepper, Mark? Dr. Pimenta?

Ok, my viewing is incomplete but in the first 10 minutes I can observe that the doctor is not accurately listening to what Ivor is presenting. As examples, He dismisses the curve because of the start date rather than the shape. He appears to be basing an interpretation of immunity on serological antibody results rather than a more complete interpretation as provided by immunology.

I made the comments (above) before finding Ivor’s riposte video (below).

These responses I have are flare points on my existing biases, but this smug junior doctor has yet to produce a critique that is convincing for me. That is, more convincing than being presented in Ivor’s presentation.

At this moment, in this edit, I have yet to be convinced that Ivor is as discredited as the tone of this thread would have us believe.

It’s a tangle that needs unpicking. And as we unpick and untangle time will pass and more information will come to light.

I agree that approaching a viral pandemic with a voice of certitude is fraught and best left to thick-skinned (or dim witted) politicians. But, in my subjective opinion, that is not enough reason to cut down the tall poppy of Ivor Cummins and taint his history and legacy in the low carb keto space. I’m calling for temperance on those aspects.


#26

For the record. Ivor’s response.


(Gabe “No Dogma, Only Science Please!” ) #27

Very pleased to see that I’m far from alone here. The overwhelming response on this board seems to be that some of these so-called “low carb experts” have now decided to excuse themselves from being credible sources. Why any of us were relying on engineers to tell us anything about medicine is rather beyond me.

It is high time that the low carb community stopped welcoming anybody who puts his hand up to speak at conferences. Qualified, serious professionals only should be put on stage. The current situation is now nothing short of embarrassing, and the community needs to take note.

If you still disagree, I have some theories by Ancel Keys to sell you!


#28

I fear it may be past that time. I hope I’m wrong.

Painfully embarrassing.


#29

The intelligent people from outside the medical profession and outside the conventionally nutrition trained practitioners (ref: Belinda and Dr. Gary Fettke’s history of nutrition teaching) are a boon to the health of low carb practitioners. In particular, engineers and physical scientists bring the scientific method and logical problem solving skills to human nutrition, an area where it seems obvious these needed skills were/are lacking.

In the example below Ivor Cummins explains why general practitioner doctors find it difficult to communicate science data based information in the virus pandemic… because it is an integration of data challenge, not just solely a medical treatment problem. I think this explanation is also applicable to human nutrition and chronic diseases treatment.

Are you advocating for censorship Gabe?

And @gabe and @TheOrangePimpernel,

Where does the embarrassment stem from? What are you embarrassed about? Or, are we being embarrassed on behalf of others who know not yet to be embarrassed?

The thing that embarrasses me is the potential character assassination on Ivor, that I gauge as unwarranted. I’m glad this is a closed forum. :flushed:

“Normies” not understanding? Nothing new here. And who cares anyway? Was the mission of the low carb message to become the norm? There is no hugeness in what is not even a tragedy. The solid based keto messages remain unaltered (except on Twitter, where all is dipped in taint). The ‘normies’ will always enjoy their xenophobic driven messenger turkey shoot. We know this as we were ‘normies’ once. And we remain ‘normies’ in other fields. At least the ‘normies’ shoot Ivor in the front.

And what will we say if Ivor turns out to be correct? We will have to silence him then, as there will be no stopping the expansion of his hubris. Call in more snipers.

I have to agree Sheriff Joey. Tolerance is required. We can almost be certain that Ivor will not be shown to be completely right. And neither will his critics. It’s a viral pandemic on social media. The reiteration and updating as time passes will expose the truths. People who are knowingly wrong and don’t much care are a concern and can be viewed as bad. I reckon the truly evil are those that think they are right, but they’re not, and that may be the essence of the discourse here. Is Ivor one of those? (It’s the standard formula for the most evil villains in contemporary storytelling). We will have to wait. Shoot him in a firing squad once he is found to be wrong. Don’t snipe him at his podium presenting what he thinks is right.

This unfortunately rings a little bit true in my ears. I recognise he has had a change in funding as is pursuing his interests self-funded now.


#30

Thanks for diving into it a bit deeper Elmo. I haven’t had enough time to fully appreciate your post.

Might he be looking at the short-term mortality fluctuations (STMF) data for the past 2 decades including weekly deaths during 2020? It’s linked from mortality.org and demonstrates graphically mortality excess and deficits (to the norms) in a list of countries. It looks like the data Ivor was communicating via the original author ‘PLC’ @Humble_Analysis (looks like a Twitter handle). Not sure of PLC’s credibility to be used as a resource.

https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/

https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis


@OldDoug Doug, I’m not sure if this is the resource but it was linked from the reference and it does take the data up to 2020.


#31

Because the player is misrepresenting the science. In the last interview I watched he cut across and inaccurately represented what an English doctor was saying in the actual interview at which point I gave up any confidence I had that he was capable of interpreting the data as he so constantly credits himself as being.

Very disappointing 'cause I lliked the quality information relevant info he nicely packaged from research on cardiac problems and cholesterol. He however appears to think he is very specially gifted and unfortunately he’s not. His lack of broad referencing of the relevant Covid research (and frankly his ignorance and generalizations) is making him sound and look like a fool.

He is overestimating his own knowledge, which would not matter except many people are trusting what he says, which is now extremely misleading and can cause harm. That’s why it matters and why people like me are critical of him now.

Its not enough to be a nice guy with a mike and some contrarian interviewees.

I iimagine he will be sued shortly by someone who thinks he knows what he is talking about, follows his advice and loses a partner or a friend as a result. This is not minor. It is as bad imo as the diabetes doctors who told me to eat carbs, which were killing me slowly.

If you claim to be an expert, you need to know what you are talking about and regarding Covid, he is wrong, regardless or possibly even because of his fan’s devotion.


(bulkbiker) #32

It isn’t by the way.


#33

The willingness of some to deliberately mislead vulnerable people in furtherance of their own agenda. I make no claims to ‘knowing’ what their agenda might be but I have some theories.


(Peter) #34

People are playing the man because a) Ivor has been partial to that himself over the years, and b) because that’s somewhat the point of this discussion, people who have set themselves up as “keto experts” and are now finding that they have a significant amount of relevance deprivation and are desperately trying to drag the spotlight back to themselves.


(bulkbiker) #35

What nonsense… he is simply presenting the data as he sees it. And he is far from being alone.

I’ve so far yet to see much of what Ivor is saying proved wrong… maybe some of his guests have been a bit OTT with their predictions but that’s on them not on Ivor surely?


(Peter) #36

No, Ivor promoting them and Ivor putting them on Ivor’s podcast and so on has nothing to do with Ivor, excellent point.


(bulkbiker) #37

What they say has zero to do with Ivor… and as for “promoting” them what about the mainstream media and their barrage of doom and gloom Cassandras…

Who unlike Cassandra are in fact listened to and lapped up by the majority.


(Peter) #38

Excellent example of whataboutism.


#39

What are the mortality rates? What are the testing rates? Any data?


#40

“It’s over” as Michael puts in the title of the thread. One would hope it would be the end of the initial fear crisis. We know so much more now we are down the timeline. I am continually amazed at the adaptability and creativity of the human species.

Ivor said the epidemic part of the curve was over by June/July when looking at the graph. He goes on to refer to that common spike as being the epidemic and that as the curve flattened saying it was over for the northern summer months. ‘It’ being the COVID19 pandemic. He goes further to explain that cases and deaths will rise with the seasonality of respiratory disease. And then he says we have to see what happens to the curve for further interpretation. I didn’t get that the COVID19 pandemic is over from that expanded listening. But that may be the inciting supposition? I guess the interpretation of what is being said is in the way one listens. Word arrangements are tricky to grasp. They seem to have a ‘meaning glycocalyx’ like the slime on a slippery fish.

plus

Is this the ‘thorn’ in our community paw?