How to estimate future weight loss?

(Sabryna Celian) #1

Hey guys, not sure if I’m writing in the right topic but if so, please tell me so I can move it.

I’m new around here so here’s my story. I’ve always had trouble with my weight. I’m a 23 year old woman, 5’5 and have done many diets in the past, before my pregnancy and after i stopped breastfeeding in march 2016. One that seemed to work at the time was the low carb, low fat, high protein diet. It worked for a few weeks but then i stopped losing and i gained 10 out of the 20 pounds lost afterwards. A keto diet is a much better option.

I’ve been on keto since february 5th and i find it fairly easy. My starting weight was 172 lbs and i’m now at 156 lbs. I lost 9 pounds the first week eating less than 50g of carbs a day and I cut down to 20 the next week. I would like to lose at least 16 more pounds but 21 to 26 would be best.

My question is this : do you know if there’s an online calculator that could show me a realistic weight loss forecast based on how much weight i’ve already lost AND my macros? It seems impossible to find.

Thank you!

#2

I doubt you will find one. Most people consider keto a way of life, not a weight loss diet.

That said, if you do find one, I doubt it would be very accurate. No CICO calculator has ever been correct for me either. Since there’s more to it than simple math.

(Larry Lustig) #3

No such thing is likely to be possible as people’s experience differs enormously.

(Meeping up the Science!) #4

Rather than set weight targets, I think it’s better to look at lean body mass composition, in terms of overall health.

As for weight loss, typically the less you have the longer it takes regardless of diet, and, typically, men lose faster than women.

(Sabryna Celian) #5

Right, no calculator has ever been very accurate for me either…

I do (try to) consider keto as a way of life, however after losing the pounds I will not restrict myself has much (calorie intake).

(Chris) #6

If you input what you eat on a daily basis on the app MyFitnessPal, and click finish day, it will tell you what you will weigh in 5 weeks. Not sure how accurate it is, but it will give you an idea!

(Sabryna Celian) #7

do you mean measuring my body fat ? Using calipers for example?

I do! It seems reasonable. I know that I lose a little faster than what it suggests, so it gives me a good idea but I thought I could find a tool somewhere that could’ve been more precise :disappointed:

(Meeping up the Science!) #8

A DXA or DEXA body comp scan is far more reliable than calipers, but the idea is the same.

Also, we see a huge loss of water weight at first (anywhere from 9-15 pounds) and then the fat loss begins. The water is attached to glycogen, and when we go keto or low carb we use that up first before making ketones. Fat loss only really starts after that first initial rush.

(Kylie Woodruff) #9

I always have a chuckle when My Fitness Pal tells me if I kept eating this way how much weight I’d lose - some days it says a lot and others not a lot. Weeks when I’ve had low cals but eaten strictly keto - I have had stalls - and I ended up putting this down to the huge amount of variables - for me things like more than 2 coffees a day I would staff - granule stevia rather than liquid - also would see me holding onto fluid I’m guessing. So many different things every single day that could have an impact on the weight loss.

(Michelle) #10

My LoseIt app says I will reach my goal weight in 4 years!!

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(Stickin' with mammoth) #11

The slower you lose weight, the easier it is for your skin to recover. Sagging only looks good on curtains.

(Kylie Woodruff) #12

That’s brilliant!!!

#13

I loathe setting weight loss targets because I always fail to meet them. I know the pattern - start a diet, drop weight, get all excited and plan out weight loss based around this and imagine the new slim you in x no of weeks. But it doesn’t work that way. You have a few things against you for steady weight loss - you are a woman, you have been playing around with diets before, you don;t have much left to lose.

I would focus on other things as @donna mentioned but, if you are determined to have a weight loss goal then make it realistic. Your weight target sounds pretty low to me. Have you maintained that weight before? What would your body fat be at that weight? I have a feeling the 26lbs loss is an unrealistic target that you will ‘fail’ to meet. It is much better to work out a healthy way of eating and then let your body find its own target weight. What you have in your head and what your body wants to do are very likely not the same! You have already lost 16lbs which is great. So you know you are on the right plan. Work at making it sustainable for life and let your body work out the rest.

(Jessica) #14

That’s a great approach…
So before keto, I was doing weight watchers. I lost 15 kg, even started running regularly and got smaller, but my belly stayed exactly the same. I haven’t measured it, but even by looking in the mirror I could tell, that my body composition didn’t change. So that’s one of the things I want to do with keto (I think I need to add that I now love this woe no matter what it does with me weightwise).

Which body fat percentage would be realistic for a woman (occasional exercise)?

#15

Most that really depends on a number of things. I believe the latest alleged idea is around 25-28% - re living the longest and healthiest life. Really, I think you should just settle where is realistic and sustainable. It is one thing focussing in on weight loss for a period of time but, as you get closer to where you want to be, you need to reach a sustainable maintenance WOE. My feeling is that during this period you establish how you want to eat forever and that will include what you like and what you need to make this true sustainable and enjoyable. Then, your weight will find its own level that suits your chosen sustainable WOE. But that’s me. I want to be healthy and happy and enjoy my life - and, for me, that means enjoying my food and not feeling restricted. I have to restrict some foods simply because they lead to overeating and old habits if I am not careful so I am a bit of a weekend, or sometimes, treat kind of girl. Keto treats of course!

#16

I’ve been using MFP for years and its CICO model has never been accurate for predicting changes in my weight.

I log my food and activity in MFP to keep myself accountable and have a record that I can review.

(Michael Wallace Ellwood) #17

I thought about using calipers, but the more I looked, the more complicated it seemed.

But just tracking your waist size with a tape measure could be good (assuming you have visceral fat).

And congratulations on your success so far! :slight_smile:

(No I'm not mad - that's just my face) #18

I just saw an app someone created that will tweak your picture to show your losses in relation to food and workouts you input. I didn’t look into it mainly because most of those things are still based on Crap nutrition and would probably show a ketonian gaining 50lbs a year. :roll_eyes:

(Sabryna Celian) #19

I used to be able to maintain my weight around 140 to 150 for 3-4 years before my pregnancy. Before that, I was in my teens and much more active, my lowest was 125, most of the time 130-135 but I’m not sure it matters now.

Right!!! :weary:

#20

Sounds to me like 140-150 is the most reasonable target then, possibly towards the upper end. I would aim for say 145 as your final target but see what happens from now on according to what your body is willing to go to in exchange for what you are happy eating.