Covid-19 versus the Flu

(Bob M) #1

Here’s a scientific comparison of covid-19 versus the flu:

Considering we know a father about my age was in the hospital over a week (in the ICU) due to covid-19, that’s not the flu. We know someone else whose 93 year old mother died and he got it and also was in the hospital a week. Covid-19 is not the flu.

(Elmo) #2

We definitely see this among dense populations, where the virus can “prove itself” in a relatively short period of time. New York City is a good example, where the death rate went to more than six times normal from all causes.

(David Cooke) #3

That isn’t proved, looks like guys whose parachutes didn’t open and were diagnosed with Covid would have Covid put on their death certificates.

(Vic) #4

No its not the Flu and its very serious but its not the 1918 flu either

The death % is much lower then reported because more people have it then known its probably the same % as the flu but the infection % is much higher then the flu

Over and over again showing much more people have then thought

I would think its much more airborne then previously thought, In addition in the beginning they proved that only the 95 masks are at all effective (which you cant get these are for medical professionals)

In addition many people are getting despite sheltering in place, For one my Aunt who would not open the door for the mailman and disinfected packages and every precaution got it,

In NY recently report showed 60% hospitalized followed strict shelter in place

Besides that there are a number of reports showing the death rate is inflated

(Elmo) #5

What I said is proven - the NYC death rate went to more than six times normal.

I didn’t say that every additional death was due to the coronavirus. There is still a large number of deaths that are not currently attributed to Covid-19 and which are also above the normal death rate. Some of these are due to other causes, granted that that is the case. But some of them are also due to Covid-19, thus there’s an overall current undercounting of Covid-19 deaths.

NYC still has 4000+ such deaths. Throw in a couple parachute deaths, there, sure - but there really isn’t much else that’s really unusual going on.

(Elmo) #6

Yes, no question about it - Covid-19 in general leaves so much of the population with almost no risk, versus a heavy toll among 0 to 5 year olds and then young adults (the peak mortality was around age 28, there) for the Spanish Flu.

I don’t think anybody is claiming that the overall death rate won’t go down (if we are just looking at deaths/known cases). More testing will certainly do that. Yet there still is no rational argument that Covid-19 is “like the flu.” Normal year for the flu is around 400,000 deaths, worldwide; we’re over 300,000 already from Covid-19 and that’s in a small portion of a year. Most of the world’s population isn’t in areas where the new virus has really got going yet.

(Vic) #7

No its not the normal Flu its new to us, We are going to get infected way more because we were not exposed to it previously, Although after a few years it will be like the Flu

However the Death % is similar if we take into account that the infected rate is much higher

The 1918 Flu killed 1 third of the world’s population The Covid could never do that And just like its not like the Flu and is more dangerous its also less dangerous then any of the major pandemics we know if in history

Edit infected 1/3d and killed at a 10% rate

(Ideom) #8

Maybe - how can we be sure as of now?

If nobody had any immunity to the flu, it would be a much different world. Then you’d see that higher infection rate for the flu. The new coronavirus is really operating in the opposite way that the flu is for us. Older people and vaccinated people tend to have immunity to familiar “regular” flu strains, even if incomplete.

(bulkbiker) #9

Nope… they reckon it killed 17-100 million (no wide number there then…) and infected around a third of the pop of 1.5 billion if wikipedia is to be believed.

Which oddly using 100 million and 1.5 bio turns out it killed 6.66% of the global pop… SPOOKY!

Amazing what you can make numbers do…

(Vic) #10

Your Right infected 1/3d and killed at a 10% rate

I spoke too quickly but the point is the same Covid wont come near that death % in reality its probably around 1 or 2% at most all things considered

(bulkbiker) #11

Agree cmpletely… COVID has added 2 days worth of extra deaths so far this year (if you believe the current figures aren’t being inflated)…


I would like to see a statistic on severity of infection and/or number of deaths in regards to blood type while also taking into account conflating factors such as medication that is also antiviral. Such as clozapine.

I’ve never in my life felt like I was going to die until I was infected with SARS-COV-2 and I’m sure I’m not the only one.

I only hope that naysayers who haven’t been infected would stop downplaying the severity of this virus.


Per Google:

Corona deaths: 86,607
US Population: 328,200,000

Percentage killed by Corona: 0.026%

(Doug) #14

What do you say the final number will be? What sense do comparisons with entire infection cycles (as with the Spanish Flu) or entire years of normal influenza statistics make, when we are clearly still very early in this one?

Pick an early time in any spreading infection, and one can say, “Oh, well this isn’t really all that bad…”

At the very least we should be looking ahead to comparable things - a full year, significant penetration of the virus thoughout the world’s population, etc.

(Vic) #15

While its not true about other pandemics as I believe most had hit and did all its damage within a short time a year at most, I do however think this one will be with us a while probably several years before we vaccine and downgrade it

I do think we will see double that number or more by then end of next year but at the same time I do think the death number are inflated a bit as I have demonstrated before and besides that I have a friend whos cousin is in the medical field in a hosp, stated they get paid more for treating covid, Besides that there are other reasons ranging from aid to others who profit

This is not to say its highly inflated but inflated nonetheless

Keep in mind over 600 K yearly die in the US from heart disease over 80 K per year from diabetes they say around 300K per year related to obesity as perspective

Also as a perspective over 36 million are out of work because of this

Also The number of Americans struggling to pay their mortgages has skyrocketed as the economy reels from the coronavirus pandemic, with nearly 3 million Americans behind by at least one month on their mortgage payments in the week ending April 12, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.


2 wrongs/extremes don’t equal a right.

Heart disease and obesity isn’t contagious.

(Peter) #17

If that’s not general practice, this is Trumpian-levels of misdirection. Apart from anything else, WTF would they waste a test on a piece of paste on the ground?

(Vic) #18

That’s not the point

However these things are preventable, Yet we don’t see it important enough to go to such extremes collectively (this is not a case to do so just for perspective on what we see as important enough to go to extremes like this)

The point is while this is bad Def, And its worse then the flu its also not nearly as extreme as other pandemics in history, Its def not extreme enough to justify a continued shut down the economy for longer and def not for 2 or 3 years as proposed, and def not extreme enough to impose draconian level authority and

Keep in mind there are people out there who are losing their income, Their businesses their homes and some their marriages,children losing their fathers, there is suicide

Also for some financial ruin can last for generations spawn drug abuse domestic abuse , homelessness (again can last for generations)

Its def not as simple as lets just stay home until this goes away there is much consequence and its not going away tomorrow will be with us at minimum next winter if not longer

If we shut down that long what will be left

If some want to stay sheltered let them

If some want to return to life why not let them

(Doug) #19

Yeah - the “3 waves” of the Spanish Flu are familiar, but it certainly doesn’t have to be that way. Covid-19 is less lethal but more contagious than the Spanish flu, and we have much better medical systems now - how all that ends up I don’t know. Some viruses are wickedly contagious, like measles - the virus is so small that it stays in the air a long time. Looks like the rate of transmission, that “R0” number, is ~2.2 to 2.6 for Covid-19, while measles hits 12 - 18.


There was also a very little 4th wave for the Spanish Flu - that flu took over 2 years to run its course. And it’s the same H1N1 “swine flu,” just mutated a little bit, that came back in 2009. That chart is for the U.S., other countries looked a lot different. I don’t think anybody really knows how the current virus will end up. There are speculations about a second wave, but I don’t see anything really compelling. I think most of the U.S. and most of the whole world is still early in the first wave.

All right! :slightly_smiling_face: Thank you! So few people are willing to make a prediction. I could believe that. 170,000 - 180,000 in the U.S. Right now, I’d guess from there up to 300,000 or so. Now we know who the virus hits the hardest and there are a lot of U.S. states with relatively high populations of old people and obese people - states where the virus has not really gotten going yet.

The “paid extra for treating Covid” thing is partially true. It started with a Minnesota state senator’s comments on a news channel, and the conspiracy nuts took the story and ran with it. The senator himself does not claim that hospitals are falsifying records (he confirmed this in an interview with FactCheck .org), and he has said that the overall Covid-19 death count is understated.

Many “less severe hospitalizations” like a Covid-19 admission get a payment from Medicare of ~$13,000, and a more severe hospitalization, like a patient on a ventilator for 4 days or more, get ~$40,000. But there is not even a separate Medicare diagnostic code for Covid-19, while the numbers the Minnesota state senator gave were correct for similar respiratory conditions. The ‘CARES Act’ does provide for a 20% extra payment for hospitals in order to offset some of the cost of treating uninsured patients, but there aren’t any valid claims of counting deaths or patients differently due to it.

I could believe that if there wasn’t the substantial gap between normal, expected deaths and Covid-19 deaths. Let’s say the normal death rate is 10,000, and total deaths are 15,000. If the count of Covid deaths was 5000 or 6000, then it would make sense that some deaths from other causes were probably being counted as Covid.

But once the virus has caused a substantial amount of deaths in a given area, there’s usually a gap between normal deaths and Covid deaths, i.e. the total deaths are larger than the total of those two, by a significant margin.

I’m seeing it like the above. Red is normal, expected deaths. We know that in times of slower economic activity, death rates tend to go down, though at first that may seem counter-intuitive. In a given area, maybe this occurs, maybe not, and maybe there are offsetting, increased deaths from other, less-treated conditions - the little area above the dashed line at the top of the red. That won’t be much of a factor, overall, either way.

Then we have the known Covid-19 deaths - the blue area. The picture isn’t drawn to any certain scale, and it would be different for different regions anyway. Then there are the deaths in the white zone, and this is what argues strongly for an overall undercount of Covid deaths. Some of those are surely due to Covid-19. In the beginning, most places only reported deaths from hospitalizations where a positive Covid-19 test had been done. This has been somewhat broadened now to out-of-hospital deaths, and even to probable Covid-19 deaths (as in New York), but there too the gap remains. In the U.S. the CDC’s guidelines are to count both known and probable cases, but most states are not yet including the ‘probable.’

Even with New York including ‘probable,’ (this includes all reported Covid-19 deaths), there’s still over 4,000 deaths in New York City alone that aren’t attributed to Covid and that are beyond the normal expected death rate. It’s the same way in many countries - thousands of “extra” deaths in Brasil, Peru, Indonesia, Germany, Netherlands, France, 6,000+ in Spain, Ecuador = almost 9,000, Italy - 10,900, the U.K. - 16,700. Almost to 100,000 for the whole world.

Yes, but that’s hardly all due to government restrictions. The markets were plunging and people’s behavior was changing long before people were being told to stay home. I think it will become more obvious as restrictions are lifted - we’ve got a long way to go through cascading economic effects that were already baked into the future, regardless of gov’t action.

Whether one thinks it’s right or wrong, restrictions are going to be lifted long before we have a vaccine or truly, game-changingly effective antiviral drug (IMO). They’re already at least partially lifted in several parts of the U.S. So we’re going to find out… :wink:

(Vic) #20

Ok Spanish Flu May have lasted longer I will give you that, I didnt search as at is a moot point, As I stated this one will be here without vaccine through next winter minimum Probably longer

“Covid-19 is less lethal but more contagious than the Spanish flu”

This is just not true Spanish Flu infected 1/3 of the world’s population at the time COVID will never come near that It also killed 10% of infected Covid will not ever come near that either

" I could believe that. 170,000 - 180,000 in the U.S. Right now, I’d guess from there up to 300,000 "

Possibly I don’t think so but would not be too surprised if it does I def don’t think more

"The senator himself does not claim that hospitals are falsifying records "

I guess Senators and politicians are known for their honesty?

FactCheck .org Dont get me started on Fact check

As far as paid extra I heard this well before it was public and it had nothing to do with ventilators only with treating

To say business that were Shut Down as in closed for buis due to govt reg’s are really way more affected but consumer habits is insane Yes there is some consumer change but in no way affects a company more then being allowed to operate

Besides Lats say there is 300 K in deaths by next year its still not much more then a lot of other things, Do you think we should shut down for another 18 months?

Because its not going to do much for another 3 months, Where is the money coming from govt is showing financial cracks too

How do you propose the many people out of work sustain themselves too Unemployment will run out as well

Do you propose the govt step in and force people to prevent other maj ilness as well because there are politicians who will take it there

Besides that no one is stopping those who want to shelter in place to continue to do so as long as they want