Coronovirus Prediction

[Bobt]

The only way to control this thing is to limit people congregating. The governor of my state has tried to get ahead of this thing. The three largest universities along with many other colleges have went online until further notice. He has also recommend that churches might voluntarily have services online instead of putting others at risk by having people gather. Many religious places not understanding the risks refuse to do this though. I guess they need the money. I also look for public schools to go online within the week. This is getting real.

[Bobt]

Just announced that all schools closed starting Monday in Kentucky.

Update: some media got information from a fake account appearing to be from the governor’s office saying the schools would close. It was shortly removed.

It’s going to happen and I wouldn’t be surprised that the info below is when it happens. It’s not a matter of if, but when …

[PetaMarie]

Bobt, I just read that we’re in a state of emergency and they’re closing public schools until April 20th. My sister in law is a teacher and said they’re announcing it tomorrow in her county. (But the cafeteria will be open for take out food if parents call it in, breakfast and lunch, so that’s nice)

I’m sandwiched between two churches and this neighborhood is hopping on Sunday. Beshear asked people to avoid going to church this weekend. Bro and I are placing bets on compliance.

[Bobt]

I’ve seen more than one pastor on Facebook being defiant. Basically saying that Beshear needs to quit mixing religion and politics and to mind his own business. I think once they start seeing what is about to happen then those thoughts will change. Our governor seems to be trying to get out ahead of this thing if it’s not already too late. Pray at home and watch church from home. If the pastor’s need the money that bad then mail it in or PayPal it to them.

[Janie]

Sorry, but this smells of a social experiment to me. Don’t know what the end game is yet but not what you think it is.

We are being manipulated

[FrankoBear]

Corona virus threads popping up all over the forum.

Food stockpile in case corona virus comes nearby

But like many in this community are expressing, their concern is for our elders. I want to be healthy enough to help them out, when they quarantine themselves preventatively or due to illness. I’m certainly aware enough to not be a source of infection for them, balanced against regular social interactions. We are already practicing social distancing at family gatherings so as not to do habitual hugs and kisses. But I still call barleese during this practice time so I can hug my mum. My wife and parents-in-law are Italian, it is quite humorous (and sad) to see them try not to greet with a kiss.

[KetoRocks]

“Did a Woman Get Coronavirus Twice? Scientists Are Skeptical” https://www.wired.com/story/did-a-woman-get-coronavirus-twice-scientists-are-skeptical/amp
I did say ‘most’. I don’t know if you have more evidence for what you say.

No I don’t have any evidence of anything, this is not my area of expertise. I am relying on the public broadcaster in Australia and this was reported on the Coronavirus update.

The information is changing daily but at least the public broadcaster here does fact check sources.

[KetoRocks]

I work from home, live in a small town and am comfortably introverted, so in that respect I’m set. My only concern at the moment is running out of toilet paper. Bulk buying hysteria is getting a bit ridiculous here in Australia.

Stay safe everyone.

Sounds ideal.
I am in the centre of the city and am quite shocked at the behaviour.
I have been twice to several shops this week to attempt to get toilet paper, unsuccessfully. Some people are behaving like complete idiots!

[Rclause]

Folks there is not much you can do except,
Wash hands a lot more than you may be accustomed to
Avoid crowds and congested areas
Maintain separation the best you can
Don’t touch anything you don’t have to
Don’t touch your face
Wash them hands again

I have a conference in two weeks and expect it to be canceled today or tomorrow. May take some time and go to a drivable location to avoid the plane for R&R if things don’t escalate significantly by then.

Edit: The conference just got cancelled. I didn’t see that one coming. We will watch the number of cases and may drive somewhere closer for some down time.

[charlie3]

We are being manipulated

Thanks to the internet and youtube and cell phones anybody can video what’s going on around them. The weight of that evidence persuades me the worst case scenarios are worth taking seriously. For me it boils down to, stay home.

[timebuster]

JanieJaneRegular

Sorry, but this smells of a social experiment to me. Don’t know what the end game is yet but not what you think it is.

We are being manipulated

Can you expand on your theory?

[velvet]

The science of soap – here’s how it kills the coronavirus

So why does soap work so well on the Sars-CoV-2, the coronavirus and indeed most viruses? The short story: because the virus is a self-assembled nanoparticle in which the weakest link is the lipid (fatty) bilayer. Soap dissolves the fat membrane and the virus falls apart like a house of cards and dies – or rather, we should say it becomes inactive as viruses aren’t really alive.

More details: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/12/science-soap-kills-coronavirus-alcohol-based-disinfectants

[Janie]

Im a wingnut conspiracy theorist so I always expect we are being manipulated and lied to.

The panic responses are nowhere near in line with the number of outbreaks and fatalities and the media is fanning the flames with its nonstop coverage

[EZB]

Dr Berg is a a moron sometimes. He doesn’t understand exponential infection growth. 25 deaths very quickly becomes 25,000 with a high infection rate. Keto may or may not make you healthier. If you are type-2 diabetic, keto will probabaly improve your chances significantly, since you won’t have uncontrolled glucose.

[EZB]

You are nuts. They are deciding in Italy to LET ELDERLY and those with UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITIONS DIE so they can instead use the space to treat younger and healthier patients with intubation and ventilation.

[amwassil]

It’s called triage. When capacity is overwhelmed, you treat those most likely to survive first.

[EZB]

Correct. My comment was to Janie, who doesn’t seem to think this is serious.

[SlowBurnMary]

Yes, indeed @Janie, we are largely miseducated or underinformed on social & political contexts, and I sincerely thank you for speaking to that as an engineer and a beekeeper!

Ever since the Union of Concerned Scientists produced their initial alarming statement about rapid global warming in the 1970s, we’ve needed overviews and ethical, preventative action & policy on multiple emergencies. Those emergencies are at a peak now - and crowd control in the face of catastrophic climate change is a thing.

Yes, let’s talk about serious… How about the fact that the POLAR CAPS ARE MELTING RAPIDLY (Greenland’s 8 billion gallons a day melt has increased a few more billion)? Or, the fact that the wondrous and beloved polar bears, birds, bees, tigers, elephants, along with many hundreds of other glorious species are rapidly declining and DISAPPEARING forever?

Yet the global news headlines and local newspapers have vastly reduced any coverage or commentary on the climate catastrophe the last few months as the focus on the new virus has increased.

Very ironically, in a world where 7 million people a year die from air pollution but that’s never been declared an emergency, nor have the biggest petrochemical users/polluters (industry and the US military) been required to severely scale back. Not to mention the public health disaster of 24/7 rape and sexual exploitation being streamed to every handheld internet device and computer (which the beloved British actor Emma Thompson has well described it as a toxic waste spill).

And global collapse fosters ever-increasing domestic terrorism on the local level, especially against vulnerable groups like women, children, people of color, the very elderly, and the disabled.

The virus pandemic is certainly, and effectively, taking attention away from the bigger picture.

From what I understand about social experiments and social controls - dictating where the attention goes allows for ever-increasing crowd control. The brilliant documentary/art film Crisis Of Civilization a few years back featuried Nafeez Ahmed PhD (former environment writer for The Guardian and an investigative journalist on geopolitical policy) who narrarated how our global crises of ecological disaster, financial meltdown, dwindling oil reserves, terrorism, and food shortages are converging symptoms of a single, failed global system that will require a terrorized citzenry and martial law in order to prevent mass uprisings, riots, stormings of palaces, etc.

Indigenous elders/grandmothers from a variety of nations have been sounding the alarm for decades, and the UN took notice and launched a yearly World Conference on Indigenous Peoples/The Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues. But the industrial world’s elite have not only ignored the elders but in many cases found new reasons to ramp up invasion of sacred lands and cultural genocide.

In 2001, British DJ and composer Nitin Sawheny created a piece on urban injustice and general collapse of civilization featuring the Ohio-based, Puertoriquena punk-rapper Pinky Tuscadero (her alias name - taken from a Happy Days character). She’d been driven into hiding/retirement by brutal supremacist haters in the music scene in the early 90s. Her prescient lyrics on the piece are an ode to the social & political realities of collapse as seen through the eyes of the vulnerable & marginalized, with a refrain of survival and fighting back on behalf of all that is good in the world. Those who appreciate the political spoken word combined with urban sound & driving electric bass on occasion (it’s definitely not for everybody) may enjoy it, it’s called Ripping Out Tears, best played in loud stereo or in good ear buds so you can hear her lyrics well.

[Janie]

I don’t and won’t be proven right or wrong until it burns itself out

Preliminary In-Season 2019-2020 Flu Burden Estimates

For the “regular flu” the CDC estimates between 34 and 49 MILLION illnesses in the US this year. Between 20,000 and 52,000 deaths. No schools were shut down, no public gatherings cancelled. The deaths in the US for the Corona are less than 50 so far? Sure it will climb… but greater than 35k deaths? We shall see… Right now Italy sits at 79 and China less than 3000. And I am crazy to not worry???

I’ll be curious to see what the final statistics will be on the beer virus.

And if anyone should worry it is me since I travel a lot for my job. I am looking forward to some elbow room from the empty seats in the next few weeks while flying. Won’t last.

[EZB]

Counterpoint: Most Flu infections don’t require an ICU Bed. New Rochelle, NY, has 12 beds, 11 of which are currently occupied by flu patients. 1 is a COVID-19 patient.

If 38 million people need medical attention, we will need to treat between 200,000 and 2,900,000 (2.9 million) people in the ICU. There are currently only 100,000 ICU beds in the country, which generally are half-occupied. (Source: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2020/cbnreport-02272020.html and https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-Statistics)

Forget the regular flu. This is more contageous than the flu and we have ZERO immunity. Why would we NOT get MORE infections in a year than the 49 million of the flu? We have only 50 deaths so far because of exponential growth. It takes time to build up, but it grows fast.

Again, the best flu comparison is to say that AT LEAST AS MANY PEOPLE WILL GET THIS AS WHO GET THE FLU! Why? It is MORE CONTAGIOUS than the flu and we have NO IMMUNITY TO IT. Nothing is there to stop it.

EDIT for more info:

To put it in perspective vs. the flu… If the SAME number of people get this as get the flu at 49million. Let’s say that the current rate of death is 0.65%, which is the probably the best-case scenario if there is no over-capacity issue. Then, that would be 318,500 deaths.

Now let’s say instead 150 million get it and that the fatality rate is 1%, that would be 1.5million deaths. This is no flu