Thank you =). My kids are all upset that they cannot take me out to a restaurant on Sunday for Mother’s Day. I am not that upset about that bit; because of Keto. For our anniversary we will not be going out either, but I will cook a nice meal here -so that is great too =).
So sorry for your losses, especially so close together.
Here is another interesting bit of data out of Illinois examining who is actually at risk from CV19. Illinois is one of the hardest hits states in the US, with over 3000 deaths. However when you actually break down who is dying, you notice that roughly half of all fatalities have occurred in nursing homes. That’s incredible since they represent .01% of the total population of the state. I think an incredibly compelling case can be made that Illinois should be locking down nursing homes better. I’m not sure that a case can be made for locking down everybody else. If you click on the table, it will expand in size for legibility.
The next thing that’s interesting to look at is the % of people in Illinois who are dying with or without comorbidities. As it turns out, 92% of all fatalities in the state happened among people with comorbidities like diabetes, and high blood pressure. We’re seeing this same picture emerge througout the world. This virus poses almost no risk to most of the population. We need most of the population to get it to achieve herd immunity. Let those with no risk go about their daily lives. Lock down everybody else, and provide financial support to those for whom self quarantine means forgoing employment.
Locking down a 25 year old construction worker, and sending him a check for $1,000/wk not to work is insane. This virus poses not risk to him. When he realizes that the company he works for goes bankrupt and he no longer has a job he’s going to wonder WTF people were thinking. A global depression is going to destroy billions of lives.
Here is a link to the granular mortality by comorbidity and demography data in Excel:
How it came out.
That was on May 6.
Arkansas is still only showing ~2% of people have thus far tested positive. The biggest unknown is how many have been exposed without being tested or knowing of it.
I don’t know how sound serology testing is now said to be, but in late July the CDC was thinking that in some places it was around 10 times as many had been exposed as had tested positive.
In seven of the 10 sites, the estimated number of cases was 10 times the number of reported cases.
In testimony before U.S. Congress on March 11, 2020, members of the House Oversight and Reform Committee were informed that estimated mortality for the novel coronavirus was ten-times higher than for seasonal influenza. Additional evidence, however, suggests the validity of this estimation could benefit from vetting for biases and miscalculations.
Overall, “ten-times higher” isn’t looking too bad at this point. One could ague that flu cases are usually grossly over-stated, i.e. if we counted cases of influenza like we count Covid then the stated flu numbers would fall to a fraction of what they’re normally reported as. But still, mid-March; that wasn’t the worst estimate out there.
You really should modify your numbers. The CDC has already (around 22 Aug 2020) that they were misrepresenting the numbers. According to the CDC’s website, total deaths in the U.S. by covid-19, is actually only 6% of the number shown. They admit to including ANYONE that died from ANYTHING else as a covid19 death, even if they tested negative, or were suspected of having it. EVEN NEGATIVE TESTS WERE COUNTING AS POSITIVE?? They include a very long chart of deaths, deaths WITH covid19 not OF covid19 to make their point how they screwed up. They were including death by suicide, murder, accidents as well. So as of 22 AUG 2020 total deaths in the U.S. of covid19 were less than 6,000 deaths.
They even list total deaths by age, co-morbidites (of which the patient was already dying from) and many, many, MANY of these people had muliple co-morbidities, with and average of 2.5 co-morbidities per death. Only 6% died of covid19.
My take away? If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, its a duck! (Duck=scam, lie, intentional misinformation).
[Wow. I went to get a link for my information from the CDC… They took it down. I even went to the “wayback machine” (its part of The Library of Congress?). This is the first time I have seen a result where it shows it was backed up, yet it is unable to display it.]
Well, here is a video, by a shill, who attempts to convince that it doesnt matter, all those died with it or of it, so it doesnt matter,
@Robert_Johnson was this the information you were talking about, from the CDC?
Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.
Yes, that was it. To my shame, I searched for it like I did originally. I simply searched the CDC site for 6% and it went direct to that table. This time my search for it failed with every search term. But its still not (or wasn’t maybe I screwed that up too. Yes, I do an awful lot of self… deprecation (my spell checker wouldn’t let me spell it right for a couple of minutes) that is still cant be found on the Wayback Machine.