Lots of news stories mention that CV19 death rates are affected by age and “underlying conditions”. Almost none of them actually offer detailed risk data, and none that I’ve found actually quantify death rates for underlying conditions controlled for age. Smoking is a big confounder too, since smoking is more prevalent in China. The last chart controls for age and smoking status. If you’re curious about your odds of kicking the bucket, here you go!
Long story short, if you’re a man over 70 and you have type 2 diabetes and high blood pressure, catching this is no more dangerous than Russian roulette. If you’re under 50 with an underlying condition, it’s only 20 times as dangerous as a normal flu. That said, it’ll be months before we have a clear picture of the true risks. The Italian data should tell us a lot more. So far the Italian numbers are much bleaker than the Chinese data that the tables below are based on.
This is a damn good time to be eating keto, reversing T2 diabetes, lowering blood pressure, and losing weight. This virus seems to be targeting the obese (like me), which seems like bullying. When it comes to the US, it’s going to going to highlight the literal meaning of “morbidly obese”. I don’t know why more people aren’t being made aware of that!
This is based on the largest dataset published to date. The first link is the table source. Second link is the data source.
These stats are a bit misleading however when it comes to “underlying conditions”, because it doesn’t control for age, or quantify the risk if you have more than one of the underlying conditions. This table appears to control for age. For a quick and dirty estimate of your own personal risk of dying from CV19, take your age related risk from chart 1, and multiply it times the multiplier found in the below based on your underlying conditions.
Here is the source paper. It’s worth reading if you like this sort of thing. Great data.
In case anyone was wondering, it appears that the diabetes risk isn’t just for they Type 1 folks, because most of those who died of CV19 had Type 2 diabetes. If you’ve ever been curious about trying extended fasting, this would be a good time to start. A doctor in Northern Italy has been tweeting about his experience treating patients in the center of this crisis. He tweeted a few days ago that they’ve had to start triaging cases, and folks with diabetes (regardless of age) aren’t even being intubated anymore in his hospital. They save respirators for people with better chances of survival. Not good!