I did not keep a list of my weekly weights until week 11. Weeks 1-5 I lost an average of 1.5% of my body weight per week. Weeks 6-11 was an average of 1.0% of my body weight.
From weeks 12 on, it has been an average of 0.8% loss, ranging between a 1.4% loss to a 0.4% gain, per week. I am currently in week 32.
When you have a lot to lose, you can lose faster. As you approach your goal weight, you should expect the loss to slow down, so that 2 pounds per week probably won’t be linear.
Common weight loss wisdom is that an AVERAGE of 1 to 2 pounds per week is a solid sustainable rate of true loss, not counting the initial water weight loss of 5 to 10 pounds.
So when I do my (fantasy) projections, I calculate for both and look at it over a 2-year horizon. That puts me at goal weight sometime between November 2019 and June 2020. Both of those dates will eventually get here, so I will let time and persistence take care of the results.
If I use the most recent few months, it’s about 0.75% per week average, which, if continued, would get me out of the BMI obese category in June, and down into the upper end of BMI normal category by Thanksgiving, and goal in January. Because my body weight would be decreasing, the same percentage of loss would result in less actual weight loss, so that’s probably a better metric.
However, I am wary of excessively rosy projections, especially with something as challenging as achieving and maintaining long term weight loss. I will be very happy if the June 2020 projection is accurate.