Since Keto is an ad libitum diet where you are supposed to eat to satiety, assuming your satiety signals work properly, I think getting hung up on calories is a dead end, tbh. We are not closed thermodynamic systems. What and when we eat seems way more important than how much.
Just anecdotally I had 1,200 calories one day, carbs at 20g, protein around 60, fat filled in the rest. The next day I had the same carb/protein macros but filled in with dietary fat up to 1,900 calories. Nothing happened on the scale. And I will keep mixing it up as Megan Ramos suggests. Falling into a predictable eating pattern can get you into a weight loss rut.
At this point in my Keto journey which started March of 2017, I’ve lost 40 pounds with about 20 or 30 left to go (female, 5’8”, 48 yrs old). I’ve been bouncing around the same scale weight since November but my clothes fit differently. I’m not exercising yet.
I’m Keto 100% of the time, I believe I’ve now healed my fat cells & they are working super efficiently, hanging on to their stores & keeping me stalled. From what I understand fat loss ability ALL depends on basal insulin level. And the only way to push your basal insulin level down after basically the six months any diet works, is fasting. How long you fast for effectiveness is highly individual and you will have to experiment as you said you will be.
As far as the exercise calories calculated on MFP I’ve always read they are wildly over stated, I ignore them. The most important thing about exercise re: Keto weight loss as far as I can tell is the increased mitochondria for fat burning. You cannot possibly burn enough calories exercising to make a weight loss difference. But you can make your body better at burning fat for fuel.