Grim prospects for bars and restaurants

(charlie3) #1

A industry analyst asks, what if patrons insist on social distancing after the lockdowns are ended? The same goes for sports events, concerts, theater, movies, etc. Those businesses may not be able to adapt. May be this means more people spending more time at home cooking their own food.(https://www.foxnews.com/media/jon-taffers-biggest-worry-for-restaurants-reopening-after-covid-19)

(Ron) #2

Not going to happen. If anything, this will cause them to overcrowd to relieve the tensions. No different than being cooped up during a hard winter. Spring fever takes over.

(charlie3) #3

Time will tell. I think the lockdowns will be lifted as soon as the medical system is capabable of treating some predicted number of cases. If the virus is still around social practices are likely to change.

(Doug) #4

Taverns, bars, pubs will have their best times ever.

(Scott) #5

I don’t think let’s say June 1st to be told your good to go do whatever you want. It will be more like you can take your foot of the brake but don’t hit the gas yet. Without a vaccine we only have herd immunity or distancing to mitigate the infection rate. We can not eradicate the virus via social distancing so this will only be a way to slowly allow most of us to get infected. Those that are in the high risk groups will need to quarantine until the vaccine is available. To answer the question I see 50% of capacity to open bar and restaurants and if that happens it won’t likely be until after June 1st.

#6

I think if this doesn’t ease up in the next month or two it’ll literally be what allow Amazon to take over the world, many restaurants will go under because the rents they pay are far too high for a take out business, and some will have a permanent case of people phobia. I think we can expect a couple more delivery companies and food shopping companies to pop up soon enough. I know Eat Street and GrubHub are SLAMMED right now.

We’re in a loose loose situation. If we don’t leave stuff partially shut down we can’t (I hate using a media term) “flatten the curve”. If everything goes back to normal too fast and people feel like they just got out of prison like @mtncntrykid said, people will go nuts and overcrowd and basically just go everywhere simply because they can. We gotta stay at partial shutdown long enough to actually help, but not so long we do irrepairable damage. I think the only way to come back is the same way we shut down, in stages. Can’t just flip the switch, not yet. Although it’s probably gonna come sooner than we think, at the rate the government is burning money to pay people, subsidize businesses, and keep people from being homeless the financial burden will overtake the health crisis.

(Ethan) #7

No offense, but “flatten the curve” isn’t a media term. It’s an industry term the media picked up for good reason.

Opening up even partially won’t work anytime soon. It just cannot happen. You need 50% immunity, which takes 4-20 months at maximum healthcare capacity or greater.

(Joey) #8

My lack of expertise never dampens my certitude, so here I go…

Restaurants, bars, taverns, pubs, inns … all been around for well over a millenium for a reason. Folks want them and there’s money to be made in running them. And there have been plenty of plagues, wars, and worse during these many centuries.

The younger people may be the first to return, since they’re in the most social phase of life and typically feel the most invincible.

Eventually, the older folks will wander back … those of us who have survived.

Not a question of if - simply a question of when. :clinking_glasses::beers:

(Scott) #9

There will always be restaurants and bars, I just hope they all don’t have signs in the window “new owner”

(Susan) #10

I agree with @SomeGuy Joey and with @Rclause Scott!

Even though I yell at them and am not happy about them doing it; two of my five kids are still disobeying the social distancing rules and hanging out with friends.

My 19 year old is being careful she thinks, but still going out places, and I worry. My 23 year old son has his own apartment and is a very very social life of the party kid, and his friends are still coming over, and he is still working full time --so I am worried about both of them.

My other three kids (daughter that is 21 and lives at home and is in College, now doing it online) is totally obeying the rules, and lysoling everything and really really complying! My 25 year old and her bf own a house together and he has been working from home and they have been very careful and complying and only shopping in spurts when they absolutely have to and she was afraid she had the Virus, but is feeling much better now, so it must have been a FluBug and her asthma and allergies acting up. My eldest son (28), his wife and 3 year old son live in another province but he already works from home (Computer Genius) and they have been complying as well.

Many young people that are social butterfly personalities (as my 19 and 23 year olds) do not seem to be complying even now in the ways that they should --are still doing small house parties, and are still eating on take-out from Pizza places, Mcdonald’s, etc and can hardly wait for the Bars, Movie Theatres, and other entertainment spots to re-open.

(Scott) #11

I think there will be some negotiating on what numbers or percentages are “optimum”. This is a learn as you go process. We will know much more when we can get a real sample of who actually has had the virus. With the current rate of infections I am getting the feeling that there a many more asymptomatic individuals that have no idea they even had the virus. If true if could lower the fatality rate and shorten the time it takes to start distancing via herd immunity rather than by shear distance alone.

#12

That may be, but it wasn’t a mainstream never ending term before the media latched onto it and made sure they said it 175 times an hour.

(charlie3) #13

The two sides to this are what governments allow and what the public decides to do. Social distancing may or may not be required, patrons may or may not accept being in close quarters with others. May be it will turn out it’s the seniors who become more cautious, still a loss of business. Restaurants are fragile. Many close in their first year open. Many may already be doomed by what’s happened so far.

(Ethan) #14

That really doesn’t make it wrong or that you shouldn’t use a term. I don’t see a problem here.

#15

Sounds like you’re good then!

(Doug) #16

Charlie, for sure, many are already doomed. Slim profit margins, most of the time; no way to survive something like this. The effects of the virus will be long-lasting, with quite a cascade of causality yet to come.

Gov’t action versus the public - how about Prohibition? :smile: It’s certainly possible that one could be at odds with the other. I imagine that what you mentioned in your original post will occur - that some patrons will insist on more distance and that some just won’t go for a substantial amount of time. So I think it’s going to be a long, hard way back.

Still, the markets are studies of human emotion going from one extreme to another. As with the end of Prohibition, I predict a Big Party is out there, somewhere in time.