Governmental response to Covid-19, Sweden, etc

(Polly) #224

In what part of the world did “automotive collisions increase during covid spikes”?

In the UK road traffic accidents fell so much during lockdown that some motor insurers are giving some insurance premium rebates to their insured drivers.

(Doug) #225

Polly, I agree that they should not automatically count all such deaths “forever.” However, that article is certainly not peer-reviewed, and it admits as much. Some of the assumptions are downright silly. The article certainly does not weight the supposed effects of what they are talking about against the huge number of ‘excess’ deaths, and no wonder - their case would fall apart right away.

PHE is already changing things, and the effect you are talking about is very small. PHE’s deaths include less than 10% that happened more than 28 days after a positive test was recorded. Of that <10%, almost half had Covid-19 listed as the main cause of death. Even taking all the remainder, it is still a proverbial drop in the bucket compared to all the ‘excess’ deaths (those above the normal, expected rate and those not attributed to Covid-19).

It wasn’t until very late in April that the NHS (which apparently would have lower death numbers than PHE) began counting deaths “where there has been no COVID-19 positive test result, but where COVID-19 is documented as a direct or underlying cause of death on part 1 or part 2 of the death certification process.” Early in the epidemic, there was a shortage of tests, and a large number of people who died out-of-hospital. These deaths make up a large part of the almost 20,000 ‘excess’ deaths as of 26 June (there are more now).

So, I can see disputing a small amount of the PHE deaths. Even having done that, or just ignoring them and going with the NHS figures, the huge number of deaths not currently attributed to Covid-19 still remains. Many - again, especially early on - were outside of hospital and with no test having been done. Many of them involved respiratory failure, however, and were obviously due to Covid-19, i.e. the undercount is real and vastly larger than what one could rationally point to as an error on the part of PHE.

(Doug) #226

In effect this is taking a less-than-perfect method of counting (which I grant could result in some relative few instances of over-counting), and presuming that the effect outweighs 20,000 or more ‘excess’ deaths that currently are not counted as from Covid-19. It does not even come anywhere remotely close, however. Even disregarding the PHE numbers and just using the NHS’s, the NHS didn’t start counting out-of-hospital deaths with no positive virus test present until late April, and by then over half the current reported deaths were in place, and a large part of the current ‘excess’ deaths.

(Doug) #227

Almost all such instances are already accounted for, i.e. nobody is pointing at all deaths not currently attributed to Covid-19, and claiming that “they actually are due to Covid.”

We already have accounted for the normal, expected rate of heart failure, etc., deaths. Then we set aside all deaths currently attributed to Covid-19. What remains is a HUGE number of deaths, and we know that to a point in the epidemic, many Covid deaths (obvious respiratory failure, etc., many in aged care centers) were occurring. This formed a good bit of the current "excess deaths’ figure.

There’s no question that some deaths are incorrectly attributed, both ways. But to take a small number, i.e. 5 or 6% of the PHE death numbers (where a fairly strong argument can be made that they at least shouldn’t necessarily be attributed to Covid), and pretending that it somehow outweighs the enormous ‘excess’ number, really does not make sense.

(Doug) #228

Good questions, Mark. In the U.S. there’s protection from damage claims, i.e. if the doctor, hospital, etc., was following the “standard of care” at the time, then it’s pretty hard to get money, unless real negligence can be proven.

On the “recovered” cases with health problems - it’s only now that we’re starting to get information. For now, it looks like there are more “messed up” people that live, versus the number that die. Yes, mechanical ventilation can screw people up, no question about it. On the other side of things, in China, a group of asymptomatic people that had had Covid-19 were given CAT scans, and 58 of 58 had lung damage. I don’t know what percentage of that will be permanent, and the same with heart damage, kidney damage, neurological problems etc. - they are fairly frequently seen but some get better.

(Bunny) #229

Almost like Ebola (“uncontrolled bleeding” or internal hematoma leading to blood clots?) which also comes from a Bats microbiome (one-fifth of the Ebola genome[1]) most likely the dermal layer of skin?

A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients:

“… Increasingly, doctors also are reporting bizarre, unsettling cases that don’t seem to follow any of the textbooks they’ve trained on. They describe patients with startlingly low oxygen levels — so low that they would normally be unconscious or near death — talking and swiping on their phones. Asymptomatic pregnant women suddenly in cardiac arrest. Patients who by all conventional measures seem to have mild disease deteriorating within minutes and dying at home.

With no clear patterns in terms of age or chronic conditions, some scientists hypothesize that at least some of these abnormalities may be explained by severe changes in patients’ blood. …”

“…Blood clots, in which the red liquid turns gel-like, appear to be the opposite of what occurs in Ebola, Dengue, Lassa and other hemorrhagic fevers that lead to uncontrolled bleeding. But they actually are part of the same phenomenon — and can have similarly devastating consequences.

Autopsies have shown some people’s lungs fill with hundreds of microclots. Errant blood clots of a larger size can break off and travel to the brain or heart, causing a stroke or heart attack. On Saturday, Broadway actor Nick Cordero, 41, had his right leg amputated after being infected with the novel coronavirus and suffering from clots that blocked blood from getting to his toes. …” …More

Footnotes:

[1] This bat species may be the source of the Ebola epidemic that killed more than 11,000 people in West Africa

[2] Ebola: Is bushmeat behind the outbreak?

image Wow! Those are some big Bats? This is not Chicken?..lol

[3] Where Did Ebola Come From?

(bulkbiker) #230

The study itself is here

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2589-5370(20)30178-4

Based on 7 autopsies and oh look there were 5 in hospital and

" All hospitalized patients were mechanically ventilated."

(Bunny) #231

…a mere exaggeration of wild imaginations, there were no blood clots in all organs, mechanical ventilation caused the blood clots in the lungs …yeah that’s the ticket?

Speaking of the product of wild imaginations I think somebody wrote a fictional account of a virus that did exactly what this thing does and made up a make-believe virus that clots and causes internal hemophilia or hematoma at the same time called “Outbreak?” I think the make-believe symptoms were the effected individuals body would turn into giant blood clot and they would bleed from the ears, nose, mouth, eyes, pores, genitals or something of that nature?

”…yeah that’s the ticket?“

Jon Lovitz Appears as the Pathological Liar on Johnny Carson’s Tonight Show

#232

Isn’t blood clotting during an infection normal?

The Global Phosphorylation Landscape of SARSCoV-2 Infection
https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30811-4.pdf

Many people think COVID-19 kills 1% of patients, and the rest get away with some flulike symptoms. But the story gets more complicated. Many people will be left with chronic kidney and heart problems. Even their neural system is disrupted. There will be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, possibly more, who will need treatments such as renal dialysis for the rest of their lives. The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more questions arise. We are learning while we are sailing. That’s why I get so annoyed by the many commentators on the sidelines who, without much insight, criticize the scientists and policymakers trying hard to get the epidemic under control. That’s very unfair.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/finally-virus-got-me-scientist-who-fought-ebola-and-hiv-reflects-facing-death-covid-19

(Doug) #233

Often, yes. It depends on the bacteria or virus (I have no idea about fungi) - does the body feel like blood needs to clot, and/or do clotting factors in the blood directly react with the given infectious agent? Lung infections (ugh) and those in the urinary tract are noted for causing blood clots.

A big change with Covid-19 has been the realization that it’s not just the lungs filling with mucus that is the problem to such a large extent as was first thought. It’s frequent to have blood clots in the the lung’s small blood vessels, as well, and indeed all throughout the body.

(Bunny) #234

This is getting more exciting by the minute now we have tentacles…

image link

(Bob M) #235

That happened in the US too. I got a check, in fact.

This is also the issue with children. A stat like “more children have died from the flu this year” is technically correct. However, where I live, my children have been at home for months. They both got the flu while going to school, but haven’t been sick since lock down. They CAN’T get sick (other than through foodborne illnesses).

So, it’s a difficult assessment.

This is also where Sweden went wrong. Most of their schools stayed open (below 16? I see various info on this). BUT they never took any data. They never went into schools to test Tcell or serology. They have NO IDEA whether their kids got this or not.

If Sweden’s theory is that they want to get to herd immunity, you can’t get to herd immunity without kids. And they have no freaking clue what the rate of covid-19 is in their kids.

(Bob M) #236

I’m still shocked at people. Had a colleague said he believes we just need to let the virus go wild through the population. What?

Here’s what’s happening in Texas:

Some of their ICUs at hospitals are full, and they are diverting patients away.

I follow a cardiologist from McAllen Texas on Twitter. He said a month ago, they only had a few covid patients at his hospital. Now, the ICU is full, and his last stint there, his rounds were 100% covid patients. And he said they “code” a lot, meaning mainly their heart has stopped and needs to go in and try to save them.

And during this process, as he kept reporting the problems he was having at his hospital, people were outraged . They refused to believe him, even requiring video (which he did not do). That’s insane. He’s simply reporting what he sees, and there’s no reason for him to lie (and, no, he does not make any more money for taking care of a covid patient).

It’s crazy. People now see everything as being political, even when all doctors are doing is telling you what they are seeing.

#237

High dose Vitamin C seems like part of the answer towards reversing the clotting or preventing it and subsequent organ damage.


(Bob M) #238

Sweden is one of those places where you can choose your side and get data that agrees with whatever you think Sweden represents. No masks, no shutdown, free-wheeling? There’s some of that (though they did have a shutdown of sorts).

Anyway, here’s a group of Swedish doctors who aren’t happy with the Swedish technique:

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/5472100002

(Bunny) #239

Wow, apparently that article is an “Open Letter“ to the world signed by 25 Doctors?

Sweden hoped herd immunity would curb COVID-19. Don’t do what we did. It’s not working:

Sigurd Bergmann, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor, Norwegian University of Science and Technology

Dr. Leif Bjermer. Ph.D., Professor, Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, Lund University

Barbara Caracciolo, Ph.D., in Epidemiology

Marcus Carlsson, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Mathematics, Lund University

Dr. Lena Einhorn, Ph.D., in Virology

Dr. Stefan Einhorn, Ph.D., Professor of Molecular Oncology, Karolinska Institutet

Andrew Ewing, Ph.D., Professor of Chemistry and Molecular Biology, University of Gothenburg

Dr. Manuel Felices, Ph.D., Head of Endocrine Surgery, NÄL Hospital

Dr. Jonas Frisén, Ph.D., Professor of Stem Cell Research, Karolinska Institutet

Marie Gorwa, Ph.D., Professor of Microbiology, Lund University

Dr. Åke Gustafsson, Ph.D., Clinical Microbiology, Uppsala University Hospital

Dr. Olle Isacsson, Ph.D., Professor of Endocrinology, University of Gothenburg

Dr. Claudia Hanson, Ph.D., Associate professor, Global public health, Karolinska Institutet

Dr. Stefan Hanson, Ph.D., International Health, Karolinska Institutet.

Dr. Jan Lötvall, Ph.D., Professor of Clinical Allergy, University of Gothenburg

Dr. Bo Lundbäck, Ph.D., Professor of Epidemiology of Respiratory Diseases, University of Gothenburg

Åke Lundkvist, Ph.D., Professor of Virology, Uppsala University

Dr. Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, Ph.D., Professor of Microbial Pathogenesis, Karolinska Institutet

Finn Nilson, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Risk Management, Karlstad University

Andreas Nilsson, Ph.D., Professor of Psychology, University of Gothenburg

Dr. Björn Olsen, Ph.D., Professor of Infectious Diseases, Uppsala University

Jens Stilhoff Sörensen, Ph.D., Associate Professor, School of Global Studies, University of Gothenburg

Jakob Svensson, Ph.D., Scientific Data Analysis, Max Planck Institute, Greifswald

Dr. Anders Vahlne, Ph.D., Professor of Clinical Virology, Karolinska Institutet

Dr. Anders Wahlin, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus of Hematology, University of Umeå

(GINA ) #240

This is interesting. I don’t normally read Newsweek, but this was posted on an ‘unmoderated’ FB site for my neighborhood.

Newsweek

#241

Update on Sweden vs the rest of Europe if anyone’s interested in still following this thread. Might not be a cautionary tale after all…

(bulkbiker) #242

You might like this one too

https://twitter.com/HaraldofW/status/1290265363259617280

#243

This story is making the rounds (including a big article in the Washington Post, my current newspaper of choice - though I’m increasingly wondering why I bother reading it). It’s the obituary of a man who died of COVID and who blamed policy for his illness.

I think that grief-stricken family can be forgiven for saying a lot of things that don’t quite make sense, but the way the media are framing this story drives me crazy. It takes all personal agency out of it and makes someone’s death completely the responsibility of politicians (and just to be clear - he blamed two politicians who didn’t or wouldn’t have gotten my vote).

The man died of COVID at 79 years of age. That is one year past the life expectancy of an American male, and probably at least several years past the life expectancy of someone with heart disease, high blood pressure and diabetes.

This is not to minimize the pain of his loss for his family… my heart goes out to them. But to lay the blame for his death on policy or folks who don’t wear masks seems absolutely insane to me.