The Chinese response to contain the virus has been pretty amazing. I don’t know if anything like it has ever occurred. Quarantining whole cities with a combined population of 50 million is kind of unprecedented. It’s not a particularly lethal virus, and the Chinese are doing everything possible, so I don’t think it will wind up being that bad.
That said, I think it’s reasonably likely something worse will happen in my lifetime. It’s probably not coincidence that the only level 4 lab in China with samples of the corona virus prior to the outbreak happens to be in Wuhan (where the outbreak originated). Ironically, since it’s the only level 4 lab in all of China, it’s also the only place where research can be done on creating a vaccine. There’s an “oops” story out there that we’re probably not going to hear.
In it’s current form, it’s not a particularly lethal virus (3% for coronvirus vs 10% for SARS), but the Chinese response has been breathtaking. Cities the size of Chicago are under quarantine, and the pictures of the streets are like ghost towns. Given how benign the virus is and the overwhelming response by the government has been, my guess is that they’re concerned that there is a very real possibility that the virus will mutate to a more lethal, or more easily transmissible form. Since the lab in Wuhan is one of the most advanced research facilities in the world, if they’re freaking out enough to cancel New Years, it’s worth keeping an eye on.
That said, this will probably all blow over in a few months and it will be contained, but I don’t take for granted that something more serious won’t happen over the next few decades. There are just too many labs out there with access to these kinds of viruses, and the science is getting easier, and easier to do for more an more countries. China alone intends to increase the number of level 4 labs from 1 to 7 by 2025. Accidents happen.
I’m not a prepper by any stretch, but I don’t think it’s irrational to have a plan B.