Doubting that the person is in a fasted state overnight is an assumption. It may well be a valid assumption, but reasoning beyond the data is what got our nutritional advice into such a state in the first place. What we really need is studies to determine the validity, or lack thereof, of that assumption. I don’t believe the overnight fast has really been studied, apart from studies on intermittent fasting. It would be interesting to hook someone up to a continuous ketone monitor and see the results. A CGM alone would not tell us enough.
Of course, if your assumption does hold true, then the rest of what you are saying is spot on.
On the other hand, that lack of hunger in the morning could actually be evidence to suggest that you were producing ketones overnight. That’s because, if your insulin remained high, it would be forcing the body to store glucose, thus rendering it unavailable to most of your organs. This is the typical explanation for why people on a carbohydrate diet are hungry so much of the time—the glucose they are eating is stored away, and not actually utilised. But on the other hand, if your overnight insulin dropped low enough to permit ketogenesis, that would be another explanation of your lack of hunger on awakening.
As I recall, during my carb-burning days, I’d go to bed hungry, but waken not wanting to eat until around 10:00 in the morning, when I’d get really hungry. On a ketogenic diet, I am usually not hungry from the evening meal until well after noon the following day, and when I do get hungry, the hunger is not so overpowering. (Cravings aside, of course, which is a whole different matter.)