I think the U.K. is a good example because there is good surveillance of things - not perfect, but pretty darn good. It may be that the current governmental approach is too restrictive - this remains to be seen, however, because we really don’t know what’s going to happen over the next few months.
On the difference between now and the coming winter, versus this past summer, I think the evidence argues for the opposite, that people are better off getting infected later, rather than earlier. This is because medical science has gotten better at treating Covid-19. Deaths per cases and deaths per hospitalizations are way down. It’s simple stuff like having patients lie on their stomachs, rather than their backs, and also things like the administration of glucocorticosteroids, better methods for giving supplemental oxygen, the usage of convalescent plasma, and more vigilance about blood clotting.
While the appearance of a good vaccine is still a question, it would make a huge further change, massively tilting things further to the “better later than earlier” side.